Earnings call transcript: ICADE Q3 2025 sees revenue decline amid market challenges

Icade’s third-quarter earnings call highlighted a challenging period for the French real estate company, with a notable 9% drop in total IFRS revenue and a decrease in gross rental income by 6% to €263 million. Despite these setbacks, Icade reaffirmed its 2025 group net current cash flow guidance and outlined strategic moves to navigate the tough real estate market. The company’s stock price saw a modest increase of 0.32% to 63.25 euros, reflecting a cautious market reaction. According to InvestingPro data, Icade maintains a market capitalization of €1.98 billion and generates trailing twelve-month revenue of €1.58 billion, with an attractive dividend yield of 5.24%.

Key Takeaways

• Total IFRS revenue fell by 9% year-on-year.
• Gross rental income decreased by 6% to €263 million.
• Icade reaffirmed its net current cash flow guidance for 2025.
• Strategic asset disposals totaled €430 million.
• Occupancy rates remain stable with strong institutional support.

Company Performance

Icade faced a challenging third quarter, marked by a 9% decline in total IFRS revenue and a 6% drop in gross rental income. The company’s economic revenue from property development also saw a 12% year-on-year decrease. Despite these setbacks, Icade remains focused on improving occupancy rates and has renewed significant leases, such as the KPMG lease until 2031.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: €729 million, down 12% year-on-year
• Gross rental income: €263 million, decreased by 6%
• Asset disposals: €430 million completed or signed

Outlook & Guidance

Icade has maintained its net current cash flow guidance for 2025, projecting €3.40 to €3.60 per share. The company anticipates a cautious outlook for 2026, expecting continued tough market conditions with no recovery in property development before 2027. Indexation is expected around 1%, lower than previous expectations.

Executive Commentary

"In an environment that remains complex and uncertain, Icade teams achieved a number of successes," said Nicolas Joly, CEO. He emphasized the company’s selectivity in operations and acknowledged the tough global market conditions projected for 2026.

Risks and Challenges

• Subdued economic environment and political instability affecting real estate.
• Decreased take-up in the Greater Paris region, down 8% year-on-year.
• Lack of new leases for large spaces over 5,000 square meters.
• Continued pressure on occupancy rates in the light industrial segment.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about potential healthcare asset sales and the company’s disposal strategy. Icade confirmed its stable S&P rating and addressed concerns regarding credit ratings, underscoring its solid institutional investor support.

Full transcript - ICADE (ICAD) Q3 2025:

Conference Moderator: Welcome to the Icade nine-month trading update conference call. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing #KEY5 on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to Nicolas Joly, CEO. Please go ahead.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Good morning. Nicolas Joly speaking. Thank you all for being here today on this call. Along with Bruno Valentin, we are delighted to present this morning Icade 2025 nine-month update. This presentation will be, of course, followed by a Q&A session. Let’s move to slide five for an overview of the main messages. To date, Icade completed or signed preliminary agreements for €430 million in disposals. This includes a reduction of the group exposure to healthcare activities by circa €210 million and the sale of mature or non-strategic assets for €220 million. The Investment Division reported a very good rental activity with circa 166,000 square meters signed or renewed to date. This volume was boosted in October by the renewal of 41,000 square meters in EcoBuilding with KPMG. For several months, the financial occupancy rate has improved, notably for well-positioned offices and light industrial assets.

On the Property Development front, H1 trends are continuing into H2. By the end of September, Icade recorded stable order volumes with a total value decrease of -5%. Lastly, we reaffirmed today our 2025 group net current cash flow guidance between €3.40 and €3.60 per share. On slides six and seven, we focus on the good progress made on disposals. Early August, Icade signed an agreement with BNP Paribas to sell its stake in a diversified portfolio of 23 healthcare assets, accounting for circa 15% of its exposure to the healthcare real estate sector. This transaction, with one of France’s leading real estate investment management firms, confirms the quality of the healthcare portfolio in Italy. This sale represents circa €173 million for Icade, in line with the asset values included in the group net asset value as of June 30, 2025.

The proceeds from the sale will repay the shareholder loan from Icade to IHE Healthcare Europe almost in full. The deal is scheduled to close at the end of the year. In addition, year to date, Icade reduced its exposure to Premier Healthcare by €36 million through two smaller transactions completed in the first half of 2025. The Property Investment Division also secured €220 million in disposal of non-strategic or mature assets. Since the IHE results, preliminary agreements were signed on additional assets for €115 million, namely an office asset covering 1,800 square meters on Avenue Charles de Gaulle in Neuilly-sur-Seine for €17 million, the remainder of the BND Hotel portfolio for circa €30 million, and the entire Mauvin Business Park in the north of Paris, representing 21,000 square meters for €69 million.

This successful transaction is the direct result of the hard work of our asset management teams who managed to bring the occupancy rate of this park up to 100% by the end of June. All of these transactions represented an average yield of about 6.1% and were completed at prices above the net asset value as of the end of December 2024. Let’s look now at the performance of the Investment Division on slide nine. Over the first nine months of the year, the rental market remained challenging, with take-up in the Greater Paris region down 8% year on year. The subdued economic environment and French political instability continue to weigh on corporate real estate decisions. As we observed in the previous months, there has been still, in Q3 2025, a lack of new leases signed for spaces over 5,000 square meters.

In this environment, Icade teams delivered a very solid performance with around 125,000 square meters signed or renewed by the end of September. These agreements represent an annual rental income of €29 million with a whopping 6.8 years. These achievements demonstrate our ability to secure large leases over 5,000 square meters and to support our clients over many years, like Club Med, who has been our tenant within Pontfroid for 30 years. It also shows our expertise in creating spaces tailored to our clients’ needs, as we have done with Sopra Steria in the Rungis Business Park. The total financial occupancy rate stood at 84% as of September 30, 2025.

In the well-positioned office segment, the financial occupancy rate stood at 88.8%, up plus 0.08 points compared to the end of December 2024, following, in particular, the leases signed for more than 3,000 square meters in the Eiffel Building and nearly 2,000 square meters in the EcoBuilding. After including the CD413 lease in the Pulse building, scheduled to start in Q4 2025, the financial occupancy rate of well-positioned offices stood at over 90%. In the light industrial segment, the occupancy rate stood at 19.4%, plus 1.5 points versus December 2024, thanks to leases signed in the Mauvin and Porte de Paris Business Park. In addition to the 125,000 square meters, we are very pleased to announce that we renewed in October the lease with KPMG for approximately 41,000 square meters. This lease has a firm commitment until 2031.

In total, Icade has signed or renewed more than 60,000 square meters since the beginning of 2025 in the La Défense Paris Défense area, which offers significantly lower rents than Paris CBD, while still being very well served by public transport. Let’s now move on to the operational performance of the development business line on slide 11. The trends have remained consistent with the first half of the year. The development division recorded a stable orders volume with 2,815 units, totaling €722 million, down by 5%. Activity in the individual segment declined by 11% in volume, in line with the overall market. This decline occurred in an unfavorable tax environment marked by the end of the Pinel tax scheme, which led to a sharp contraction in individual investor activity, i.e., minus 43% year on year.

The momentum was more positive for our owner-occupier orders, which increased by 14%, supported by favorable measures promoting homeownership. Bulk orders showed an 11% increase in volume, but a 6% decrease in value. This discrepancy between volume and value changes is explained by a temporary shift in the product mix. Institutional investors continue to support business activity as they accounted for 51% of orders in volume terms year to date. It is also worth noting that institutional investor activity has historically been stronger in the second half of the year, with circa 60% of bulk orders made in Q4 in both 2023 and 2024. I’ll now turn the floor over to Bruno to present the change in revenues. Thank you, Nicolas. Let’s move to slide 14, in which we present the trend in consolidated revenue as of September 13, 2025.

Icade’s total IFRS revenue is down by 9% due to lower revenue from both the property investment and the development divisions. Let’s dive into the financial performance and property investment division in slide 14. In line with the figures reported in the first half of the year, gross rental income decreased by 6% to €263 million, mainly due to tenant departures last year and the gradual crystallization of negative reversion renewals. These effects were partially offset by the positive impact of indexation, which has gradually moderated but still contributed +3.2%, and by early termination fees, mainly related to the to-be-repositioned offices. Move to slide 15. On the property development side, economic revenue amounted to €729 million as of September 13, 2025, down by 12% year on year.

This decline results, firstly, from a drop in the commercial segment with revenue down by 42% year on year due to the completion of major projects at the end of 2024, coupled with the low volume of new contracts signed in 2025, and secondly, from the progressive decline in the residential backlog. I will hand over to Nicolas for the conclusion. Many thanks, Bruno. Let’s move on to slide 17 for the 2025 guidance. We reaffirm our 2025 guidance of a group net current cash flow of between €3.40 and €3.60 per share. This includes net current cash flow from non-strategic operations of approximately €0.67 per share, excluding the impact of disposals. As of September 2025, the income already recorded by Icade represented 92% of annual net current cash flow from non-strategic activities.

Let me remind you that the contribution from non-strategic activity does not include the payment of a potential interim dividend from Premier Healthcare in 2025. In an environment that remains complex and uncertain, Icade teams achieved a number of successes during the quarter, as illustrated by the continued execution of our disposal plan and a very strong leasing performance. We remain focused on implementing our strategy with priorities that include improving the occupancy rate of our assets, diversifying our portfolio, and rigorously managing our balance sheet. With that, let’s start the question and answer session.

Conference Moderator: If you wish to ask a question, please dial #KEY5 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #KEY6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF Corporate & Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning. Thank you for this presentation. Three questions for me if I can. My first question would be in offices. You have said that improving the occupancy rate is a high priority. Could we say some words on your next challenges in offices, notably for the end of 2025 and 2026? What shall we expect? My second question on healthcare assets. Have you any comments to make for the other assets to be still sold in healthcare? My last question on the 2933 Champs-Élysées. Any comment on your intention to dispose or not at the end of this asset? Thank you very much.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Okay. Morning, Florent. Thanks for your question. Maybe I’ll start with the financial occupancy rate. You saw that there were some recent improvements, indeed, in the occupancy rates for well-positioned and light industrial segments. As I said, including the positive effect of Pulse, by the end of 2025, the occupancy rate will be above 90% for the well-positioned. Light industrial, 90.4%. Of course, there’ll be a slight negative impact to be expected post-disposal of the Mauvin Business Park, but things are getting better month after month. Once again, this remains and shall remain the first priority for the teams as for the Investment Division. Maybe to give you a bit of some visibility on what to expect in 2026 regarding the expires, I would say it’s globally the same trend as in 2025, with some expires to be expected concerning the to-be-repositioned assets.

As more than half of the expires will occur in H1 2026, we shall be in a position to give you some good visibility for the full year 2025 result presentation. On the second question on the healthcare portfolio, clearly, given the political environment in France, which does not help and could discourage some international investors, our first priority is to focus on the international side. We’ve shared some good news with the Italian portfolio that shall be closed at the end of the year. We are also focusing a lot on the Portuguese assets, which are, as you know, high-quality assets that can attract and solicit the interest. We are also marketing the small remaining part of the Italian portfolio, which constitutes five assets representing roughly €20 million.

On France, once again, on Premier Healthcare, there’s no major news to share, given the French context, but we are still exploring some additional routes, sale of non-core assets, additional swaps, as we’ve done during the H1. On the Champs-Élysées asset, of course, we won’t comment specifically on the asset or the process, but we’ll keep being consistent with our DNA, which is to capture the maximum of the value creation. Once again, for this asset, in our view, a large part of the value has been already created through the eviction of tenants and the obtaining of the permit. There’s a good window because there’s very strong liquidity on the investment market for core plus and value-add assets in Paris CBD. We saw a lot of transactions there with loads of cash. Clearly, with those two, an opportunistic approach, in our view, shall be considered.

Once again, the key decision will be made on value creation.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you, Florent.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Stefan Ifanzou from Jefferies LLC. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. First, on the EcoBuilding, could you please share the reversion rate reflected in this renewal? Second, on Icade promotion, should we expect additional provisions or impairments since market parameters have changed? Finally, on asset values, market data points to further yield expansion. What should we expect in terms of asset value decline in H2, or at least what assumptions are you using in your business plan? Thank you.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Okay. Thanks for your question. Starting on the EcoBuilding, maybe just before sharing thoughts on the economics, let’s take a minute to celebrate, which is really good news, rewarding the hard work of the team that has been working on this for several months now. As we shared with you, we tried to anticipate as much as possible the large break options we’re facing, and we have some strong relationships with our major tenants, so we were really happy to succeed in that. Of course, we cannot share the detailed figure, but maybe highlight the one thing is that, as put in the PR, the signature rent is in line with the RV, as we usually do. This crystallized a significant negative reversion. It was the highest negative reversion potential in the portfolio. That shall be captured after the end of the actual lease from October 2027.

I’m sure that if you put some raw figures, you can be able to estimate this roughly. As for the incentive, they are slightly above the market trend, but in my view, remain fully consistent with the very large surface that is considered. We are talking here about circa 41,000 square meters. To conclude on the EcoBuilding, this is, in my view, an emblematic transaction, testifying once again to the good dynamics of the area and La Défense district and the strong relationship we have with our tenants. Maybe jumping on your side. Yeah? Yeah, yeah.

I have in mind that the reversionary potential was minus 11%. Taking into account this renewal, where does it stand now?

Yeah, this accounts for roughly 2 points out of those 11 on the average portfolio.

Okay. Thank you.

Yeah, this, once again, will be captured at the end of the actual lease in 2027 because until then, we are still on the current rent. Okay? Is that clear?

Okay. Okay. That’s clear. Yeah, thank you.

Okay. Jumping on your second question on Icade Promotion. Of course, the market trend is still very tough. As you saw, on the residential business, we’ve been deeply impacted by the end of the Pinel tax scheme that had a negative impact on orders of individual investors who were roughly minus 43%. As shared, there’s a better dynamic for our owner-occupier. The bulk sales still represent more than half of the total orders, with a historical volume very strong in Q4. There is very low activity in the commercial division, and that shall be the case in the years to come. We are still very selective in our operations. There may be one or two operations identified with more difficulty than expected. We’ve done the job on the whole portfolio in June 2024, so there’s nothing that is expected once again on that.

I would say that for the global activities, there’s no recovery, in my view, expected before 2027, especially due to the political agenda. As you know, next year will be the local election on the town, so this is usually years with very low level of building permits.

Okay. In your view, the provision and impairments that you recorded maybe two years ago are conservative enough at this stage?

Yeah. We went through the whole portfolio on that. As I said, given the context, there still can be some operations selectively that can have some issues. Once again, on the whole portfolio, the job has been done.

Okay.

On the last question, on the evolution of the asset value, you saw in H1 that there was a small deceleration of the asset value decline of -2.8%. I remember in Life4Life, both from negative impact of residual yield decompression and to a lesser extent, lower expectation for indexation, clearly. Light industrial were more resilient, of course. If we focus on offices, it’s still difficult to confirm the timing of value stabilization as there are still very few transactions on the market to assess properly the target cap rate. On top of that, there are still some persistently high sovereign yields. Nevertheless, as you saw, we had a strong divestment activity during the first nine months of the year, and the sale of core assets completed year to date confirmed the level of our actual NAV.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Celine Sewin from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Nicolas. I got two questions, please. The first one is about the guidance. In the press release, you said that the disposal of the Italian healthcare portfolio could impact the NCCF depending on the closing date. Could you please give us a number around this? The second one is around your outlook. You sound very cautious. I would almost say quite negative on your outlook for 2026. We know your S&P credit rating currently is negative. Are you expecting a credit downgrade coming? Thank you.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Maybe quickly on the first one. Globally, the impact of the disposal of the Italian portfolio will be non-significant on the cash flows because it’s expected to occur at the very end of Q4, not significant. On the outlook, cautious, clearly, because 2026 globally will remain very tough, in my view, on market conditions. You get this political agenda in France that will definitely have an impact on the pace of recovery. We are facing persistently high sovereign yields. That won’t help. Thirdly, there’s a lower positive indexation to be expected in 2026. On top of those macro effects, more specifically on Icade side, as I said, on the property development, given the political agenda, there’s no expectation, in our view, of recovery in 2026.

On the investment side, I was mentioning a lower positive impact on indexation that we expect roughly at 1%, much lower than expected some months ago. As you know, there are still some negative reversions to be crystallized in the cash flow. Of course, this is already, as you know, in the net asset value, but still to be crystallized lease after lease in the cash flows. There are still some departures, mainly on the to-be-repositioned assets, that will still wire on the Life4Life, clearly. Not negative, but clearly, cautiousness is, in our view, on both businesses and the macro is necessary. Maybe, Bruno, you want to?

Bruno Valentin, CFO, Icade: Yes.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Go ahead, Sylvie.

Bruno Valentin, CFO, Icade: Yes.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Go ahead.

Bruno Valentin, CFO, Icade: We remain highly focused on the S&P, of course, ATV ratio. That’s three points. First, the disposals achieved over the last nine months help to keep the ATV ratio under control. Secondly, we have a limited committed level of CapEx in the pipeline, but nevertheless, we remain subject to variation in asset valuation.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Celine, you were mentioning, I saw the outlook negative, but the current outlook is stable.

Bruno Valentin, CFO, Icade: It’s not negative.

Sorry, I thought your outlook was negative.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: No, no. This is stable. Triple B stable.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Michael Finn from Green Street Advisors LLC. Please go ahead.

Yes, I was just curious, given the change in the sources of funds, since it seems slightly better than it was, I’m curious if there is any change in the uses of those funds as well. Should I assume that the strategy is in line with the investor day, from February of 2024?

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Yeah, Michael. We are still being in line with reshape. As I shared in my conclusion, we are focused on our existing portfolio and the occupancy rate. We are also focusing on diversifying our exposure to additional asset classes, such as PBSA or data centers, for example. There were no major news to be shared during this Q3, but clearly, we intend to reallocate into relative developments, the cash that comes from the divestment. We are still being in line with the main guidelines of the reshaped strategic plan that we’ve shared in February 2024.

Okay. Thank you.

You’re welcome.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Samuel King from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the presentation. Just one clarification question on earnings guidance, please, and specifically on the contribution from non-strategic operations. I understand that it excludes a potential interim dividend from Premier Healthcare, but am I right in thinking it also excludes a potential dividend from IHE Healthcare Europe, which last year was around €10 million? If so, is the decision made if IHE Healthcare Europe pays a dividend? Because, in theory, the disposal and repayment of shareholder loans should improve the financial position of IHE Healthcare Europe and therefore its ability to pay a dividend this year.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Thank you, Samuel, for your question. There was no assumption of an interim dividend on Premier Healthcare and no dividend on IHE Healthcare Europe, but we don’t expect a dividend on IHE Healthcare Europe. Most of the cash flows were drawn through the shareholder loan, so nothing to expect on this regarding IHE Healthcare Europe. As for Premier Healthcare, we’ll see if there is an interim dividend before the year-end. If this is the case, of course, we will be telling the market that it’s the case. You were right. On the current guidance, the $0.67 does not include any interim dividend on Premier Healthcare or any dividend on IHE Healthcare Europe.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Valerie Jacob Guezi from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to ask a follow-up question on your rating with S&P. My understanding was that S&P had assumed approximately €700 million in order for your outlook not to be downgraded. I mean, I know you are pretty stable, but I’m talking about an outlook downgrade. I was wondering, you’ve only done €400 million so far. If you don’t sell Champs-Élysées in 2025, is there a risk that your outlook can be downgraded? Maybe if you can share some discussion you’re having with S&P. Thank you.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Today, once again, we are consistent with the trajectory we’ve shared. We’ve demonstrated our ability to sell assets, even sell assets at the right price. As we said, it was above net asset value. There are a few opportunities in the pipeline that make us confident in being able to secure the debt on debt plus equity threshold at 50%. At this stage, nothing specific is worth sharing.

If you don’t sell anything until the end of the year, there is no risk in your view that your outlook is going to be downgraded. Is it what you’re saying, or?

It’s not for me to say. I mean, it’s S&P to say. Clearly, today, we’ve demonstrated that we are able to secure our debt on debt plus equity trajectory. On top of that, the additional two KPIs are very comfortable headroom regarding the guidelines set by S&P.

Okay, thank you.

You’re welcome.

Conference Moderator: There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Nicolas Joly, CEO, Icade: Okay. Thank you very much. Happy to have shared this part of the morning with you. Looking forward to talking to you. Have a nice day. Bye-bye.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.