Earnings call transcript: Triple Flag Q2 2025 beats forecasts, stock surges

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (market cap: $5.1 billion) reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $0.24, surpassing the forecast of $0.22. Revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $94.1 million against a forecast of $84.49 million. The company’s stock reacted positively, rising 8.2% to $25.06 in the premarket session, contributing to an impressive year-to-date return of 65.7%.

InvestingPro analysis reveals 16 additional investment tips for Triple Flag, including positive analyst revisions and strong financial health indicators. Subscribers gain access to comprehensive valuation tools and deep-dive analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Triple Flag’s Q2 2025 EPS of $0.24 beat the forecast by 9.09%.
• Revenue of $94.1 million exceeded expectations by 11.37%.
• Stock price increased by 8.2% in premarket trading.
• Strong operational performance with zero debt and high liquidity.
• Increased dividend by 5% to $0.023 annually.

Company Performance

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp delivered a record-breaking second quarter in 2025, significantly outperforming its previous quarters. The company reported sales of nearly 29,000 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) and achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of CAD 76 million. With an impressive gross profit margin of 87.3% and an overall financial health score rated as "GOOD" by InvestingPro, this robust performance is attributed to their strategic focus on mining-friendly jurisdictions and a strong precious metals market.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $94.1 million, up from $84.49 million forecasted.
• Earnings per share: $0.24, compared to a forecast of $0.22.
• Operating cash flow per share increased by over 50% year-over-year.
• Exited the quarter with zero debt and nearly $1 billion in liquidity.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Triple Flag’s Q2 2025 earnings surpassed expectations, with an EPS surprise of 9.09% and a revenue surprise of 11.37%. This strong performance marks a continuation of the company’s positive trend in exceeding market forecasts.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Triple Flag’s stock surged 8.2% to $25.06 in premarket trading. The stock has demonstrated remarkable momentum, delivering a 74.3% return over the past year and trading near its 52-week high. According to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its intrinsic value, suggesting investors should carefully consider entry points. Check out our Most Overvalued Stocks list for more investment opportunities.

Outlook & Guidance

Triple Flag remains optimistic about its future, reaffirming its 2025 guidance of producing between 105,000 to 115,000 ounces. The company is also focusing on expanding its production capabilities at key mines and maintaining a robust transaction pipeline.

Executive Commentary

CEO Sheldon Van Der Khoi stated, "We had a strong first half in 2025 and are well positioned to achieve 2025 guidance." CFO Yvan Bari highlighted the importance of operating cash flow, noting, "Operating cash flow per share, the single most important metric we focus on as a company, has increased by over 50% year over year."

Risks and Challenges

• Potential production challenges in 2026.
• Dependence on precious metals prices, which can be volatile.
• Geopolitical risks in mining jurisdictions.
• Competition for acquisitions and resources.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the STEP Gold stream situation and potential production challenges in 2026. Executives expressed confidence in meeting 2025 guidance and highlighted their flexible approach to deal-making.

This comprehensive performance and optimistic outlook have contributed to the positive market sentiment surrounding Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

Full transcript - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Q2 2025:

Kathleen, Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by. My name is Kathleen, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Second Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

And now I would like to turn the call over to Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO. Please go ahead.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Thank you, Kathleen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag’s 2025 results. Today, I’m joined by our CFO, Ivan Bari. Triple Flag achieved another record quarter in Q2. Sales of nearly 29,000 GEOs drove record adjusted EBITDA of CAD76 million and most importantly record operating cash flow of CAD0.38 per share.

Given our strong margins that consistently exceed 90%, these record results demonstrate Triple Flag’s ability to realize higher per share cash flows in today’s strong gold and silver price environment. This strong performance has also positioned us well to deliver our 2025 guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces over the balance of the year. On the deal front, we have maintained a solid pace of accretive acquisitions during the 2025. Most of these transactions have focused on tuck in investments into near term production starts, including the Tre Corvadis Lithia mine in Argentina, the Arcata and Azuca silver mines in Peru, as well as the newly announced additional 1.5% gross revenue royalty on the Johnson Camp copper mine in Arizona. All of these three acquisitions are expected to deliver first revenue in the second half of this year.

Notably, we also completed our acquisition of a 1% NSR royalty on the world class Arthur Gold project located in Nevada formerly known as the Expanded Silicon Project. Operated by AngloGold Ashanti, this project offers exceptional long term growth potential underpinned by a rapidly expanding resource base and significant exploration upside. This asset represents tremendous value for our shareholders and I would like to thank the Triple Flag and Origin teams for their hard work and dedication in completing this transaction. We are very excited about the Arthur project. AngloGold’s CEO made quite positive statements about Arthur last week and I think that our shareholders are really going to benefit from our exposure to this project in the future.

Turning back to organic growth. The most powerful and value driving aspect of the royalty and streaming model is the free carried optionality that Triple Flag has on our assets as our operators continue to search for new exploration discoveries, replace reserves and expand their assets. Triple Flag has 4.75% exposure to Westgold’s Beta Hunt mine in Australia. In Q2, Westgold declared a maiden resource for the Fletcher Zone of 2,300,000 ounces. This nearly doubles the total resource base at Beta Hunt with significant exploration potential at depth and a long strike.

Westgold’s rapid progress from the announcement of the initial discovery target at the Fletcher Zone last September to the declaration of a maiden resource in June is a testament to the quality and embedded value within our portfolio. I’ll touch more on the Fletcher Zone later on in the presentation. Finally, an important pillar of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders. We are pleased to announce our fourth consecutive annual increase of our dividend since we listed in 2021. I will now ask Yvan to discuss our financials for the 2025.

Yvan Bari, CFO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Thank you, Sheldon. As noted, we had a very strong second quarter with portfolio producing nearly 29,000 GEOs, resulting in a record first half of over 57,000 GEOs. This puts Triple Flag right on track to achieve our 2025 sales guidance. These strong volumes were delivered amid the backdrop of record precious metals prices as well as continuing strong margins. Accordingly, we’re pleased to highlight that operating cash flow per share, the single most important metric we focus on as a company, has increased by over 50% year over year to a new quarterly record.

We view a progressively growing dividend as a core part of our capital allocation strategy. Our dividend has been increased to $0.02 3 on an annualized basis, up 5% from prior dividend. I’m proud that we have increased our dividend every year since our IPO. Lastly, I’d like to comment on our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with zero debt.

And even with the capital deployed early in Q3 for the Arthur royalty, we expect to be in net cash position by the end of Q3 at current metal prices. Overall, a clean and strong balance sheet, robust operating cash flows and total liquidity available of nearly $1,000,000,000 gives us the capital to continue to deploy dollars into accretive opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of shareholders. Moving ahead, we highlight three key aspects where our investment thesis that remain unchanged, namely top tier assets, precious metals focus and a portfolio which is predominantly centered in Australia and The Americas. North Parks and Cerro Lindo continue to be the two largest contributors to revenue. NorthPark had a record quarter due to processing of higher open pit grades from stockpiled ore, while Cerro Lindo received a strong benefit from the rapid rise in silver prices towards the end of the quarter.

Overall, revenues derived 100% from precious metals with roughly twothree from gold. This pure play exposure ranks amongst the highest in the sector and offers investors exposure to many favorable tailwinds for both gold and silver. Finally, our portfolio is predominantly located in mining friendly jurisdictions. A key criteria, we look to expand our portfolio through acquisitions. In Q2, 90% of our revenue was derived from assets in Australia and The Americas.

I will now turn it over to Sheldon to discuss Beta Hunt and the new maiden resource at the Fletcher Zone.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Thank you, Ibn. Beta Hunt is an underground gold mine located in Western Australia and operated by Westgold. We have several gold royalty interests on the asset including a 3.25% on gross revenue and a 1.5% NSR. These royalties were acquired through our acquisition of Mavericks Metals in early twenty twenty three and last quarter represented our third largest source of revenue. The positive news flow from this asset has been meaningful over the past year.

In addition to exploration success currently anchored by the Fletcher Zone maiden resource, Westgold is advancing an expansion project for the asset to achieve consistent mine throughput of 2,000,000 tonnes per annum. With the declaration of a maiden resource of 2,300,000 ounces at Fletcher Zone that nearly doubles the previous resource base at Beta Hunt, there is also now scope for further expansion potential above 2,000,000 tonnes per annum. This is particularly important as the Fletcher Zone is located only 50 meters from the Western Flank system, which is currently the main source of ore at Beta Hunt. This maiden resource was achieved from only one kilometer of a known two kilometer strike, highlighting the potential for upside at Beta Hunt. The resource is also open at depth.

Given the significant discovery, we look forward to seeing how the Fletcher Zone will ultimately be optimized within an expanded Beta Hunt operation by Westgold. Several catalysts are upcoming, which should provide a preview of the near term future, including a three year company wide outlook in September and an initial reserve for the Fletcher Zone in Westgold’s fiscal year 2026. To close, I’d like to state that we had a strong first half in 2025 and are well positioned to achieve 2025 guidance over the remainder of the year. We saw robust growth in operating cash flow per share and delivered both tuck in and large scale transactions that will benefit our shareholders for decades to come. Triple Flag has a strong track record of GEO growth and we look forward to seeing the delivery of several catalysts across our portfolio.

These include the commencement of production at Johnson Kent Mine, Arcata and Tre Corbatas as well as development progress with the E48 sublevel cave at Northparks and at the Cone, Hope Bay and Arthur projects. I’d also like to specifically call out some positive news announced by our operators yesterday. Centerra announced that it will rapidly advance its Nevada Goldfield project. Triple Flag holds a 5% royalty on the Gemfield deposit, which accounts for approximately 80% of Goldfield production. Talon Metals also announced very interesting drill results on its Minnesota Tamarac project.

These results are within our royalty coverage. Looking ahead, our transaction pipeline remains very robust and we are excited by the significant opportunity ahead for our business to deliver further value. Kathleen, please open the floor to questions.

Kathleen, Conference Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. You. Your first question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Yes. Thank you very much. First question is just on Guinessen. The royalty additional purchase here looks to be done at a very attractive price sub three times cash flow based on what the company’s guidance is. I’m just wondering from the overall royalty, what should we be expecting as a steady state production that Triple Flag is estimating?

Thank you.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Thanks, Josh. Yes. So the Johnson Camp royalty, it’s not a large amount in total. As you pointed out, it’s fairly small purchase price we have on that. I don’t believe we’re going to be giving any like asset specific guidance on that.

But it’s a little bit of incremental copper exposure. We think it’s quite attractive. And I think as you noted, in addition to this, we picked up an additional 1.5. We already held a 1.5% and the Johnson Camp mine is also subject to the stream area, so we’ll benefit in that way. But we’re not giving asset by asset guidance.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Got it. And then on ATO and some of the additional disclosures here. I guess first, what would be the process here for Triple Flag to enforce their security on the stream? And then as a follow-up, how does that affect the operators’ credit situation and their, I guess, their current restructuring process?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Thanks, Josh. I just want to set the context for this, the STEP Gold disclosure that we had. The current amount of the arrears that STEP owes us is circa US8 million dollars So it’s not a tremendous amount of money. And STEP actually has over a CAD300 million market cap.

So I believe that they are able to pay. Historically, we’ve had a very good relationship with the Step Gold management team. We actually made our initial investment in Step in 2017. Our initial investment was GBP 28,000,000. To date, we have realized over GBP 50,000,000 in cash flows from that investment.

So it’s been really lucrative for us. In 2023 sorry, in July 2025 sorry, 2024, I’m getting mistaken up here, Brew acquired a controlling interest in Step Gold and the relationship changed. So Brew is a private mining company. It’s based in Singapore. They’re quite a successful group.

They acquired Lagunas Norte asset from Barrick in 2021, and they’ve done very well with that. And they acquired STEP in order to get access to the Phase two development at ATO. Boru was well aware that the stream was in place when they acquired their interest in STEP. Parties related to Boru approached us and asked us about buying out our interest. We were not interested in that.

And the Phase one oxides at ATR are coming to an end and STEP is targeting Phase two production in 2026 and 2027 and that’s based on their public disclosure. We didn’t agree to the delivery halt. We do have a parent guarantee from Step Gold. They are a producing gold company. According to their public disclosure, they’ve called for over 74,000 ounces of production in 2025.

And there’s value in the Phase two project. To me, it’s very clear there’s value in Phase two. The price of gold has increased significantly since Peru acquired its interest in STEP. So I don’t want to talk about the specifics of how things might be enforced. I feel very comfortable with our position.

We are in dialogue with STEP. They understand our position very clearly. And I really can’t say anymore as it’s a legal dispute.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Got it. Thank you. And then maybe one last question on that. Is there any ability to quantify, I guess, what Triple Flags assumed production from this asset is maybe in 2025 within the current guidance?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Again, I don’t give asset by asset guidance, but I guess I’ll say this, I feel very comfortable with our guidance for 2025. And even if we don’t get a single ounce from ATO, I’m still comfortable with our guidance for 2025.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Thank you very much. Thank you.

Kathleen, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Fahad Tariq, Analyst, Jefferies: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just looking ahead to 2026, it looks like production is declining mainly due to Northparks, the high grade stockpiles deplete by the end of this year from E31. And then you also have a step down in the stream rate at Cerro Lindo. Can you just maybe walk through I know you don’t want to asset by asset guidance, but maybe just at a high level, where could potential offsets come from to get offset some of the lower production at North Park since Cerro Lindo?

Thanks.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Fahad. As you noted, like we’ll get a better picture on where North Park is coming in as the year goes on. Evolution Mining has a June 30 year end. And so we’ll solidify what we’re seeing from 2026 as we get further into this year.

And as you point out, Cerro Lindo does have a step down coming, which is really a testament to the success of that investment and it’s still going to be a quite a successful asset for us going forward. In terms of offsets, I mean, it’s quite a robust portfolio profile going forward. I mean, of the things point to is the Arcata mine should be coming on stream later this year. We also have the Johnson Camp mine coming online this year. We’ll see some production from that.

Existing portfolio, we are seeing step ups in production at a few other sources as well. But as you kind of correctly pointed out and I said before, I don’t want to get in the asset by asset specific guidance too much.

Fahad Tariq, Analyst, Jefferies: Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe just second question and last one for me. On kind of deal flow and kind of what’s in the pipe what you’re seeing out there effectively, it looks like there’s you’ve done a couple of smaller deals on non precious metals. There was the Arthur Gold that was a bit larger.

Maybe talk through what you’re seeing in the deal pipeline and just thoughts philosophically on even corporate M and A?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. I’m going to give you an answer I think which is pretty similar to what everyone else is saying, which is it’s a really full pipeline. We continue to be active looking at many opportunities. It’s a real mix of larger and smaller opportunities. I think our sweet spot remains in the $100,000,000 to $300,000,000 range and we’re definitely looking some that fall even at the higher end of that range.

We are looking at some opportunities that are below that range as well. And if we see a chance to add value, we’ll certainly take advantage of that. The pipeline right now is really focused on good jurisdictions that I think our shareholders would really like. I don’t know what color I can give you really beyond that. You did ask about like corporate consolidation.

In theory, I think in general, I’m quite in favor of consolidation and corporate M and A opportunities. We had a very successful experience with the Mavericks Metals acquisition. I talked about Beta Hunt on the presentation. That was a Mavericks asset. Hope Bay has done really well.

Kensington has done well. Kone has done really well out of that. So I think there’s tremendous value opportunity for value there. So in general, we think that there’s attractive opportunities.

Fahad Tariq, Analyst, Jefferies: Okay, great. Thank you.

Kathleen, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst, Scotiabank: Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. Some have been already asked, so I’ll just refine a few other points I need a clarification on. Just on your pipeline, the 100,000,000 to $300,000,000 range, I’m assuming it’s all precious metals that lithium one was just an offset. Would that be correct?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Hi, Tanya. Yes, predominantly the pipeline is full of precious metals opportunity. And you’re right, but lithium was very much an opportunistic investment where we thought we had a very attractive opportunity. So we’re not focused on lithium or battery metals.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst, Scotiabank: Okay. And would you say your GBP 100,000,000 to GBP 300,000,000, is that mainly development? Or are you looking at more nearer stage production production portfolio, let’s say?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Again, it’s a mix. There’s actually probably a good number of actual producing opportunities in there.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst, Scotiabank: Okay. And would I assume also that the any streams that you’re looking at would also involve equity investments and debt participation as well?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: No, I wouldn’t assume that at all. I think that’s really specific opportunity by opportunity sort of thing. We’ve been quite clear. We prefer to focus our investment dollars on streams and royalties. I think that’s what our investors are looking for.

We are open to it kind of in fairly small proportions on as needed basis. And but that’s certainly not our focus.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst, Scotiabank: Okay. And then my last question on this is safe jurisdictions that you’ve talked about. Some of the other opportunities we’ve seen lately have been in Africa. Is it safe to assume that you’re still focusing on The Americas and Australia?

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Definitely the focus is Americas and Australia. Africa, I think you have to distinguish between different jurisdictions, but the bulk of the pipeline is actually Americas and Australia.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst, Scotiabank: Okay. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Thank you.

Kathleen, Conference Operator: And there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Sheldon Van der Goy for closing remarks.

Sheldon Van Der Khoi, CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals: Yes. Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We feel you had a really great quarter, and we’re looking forward for the balance of the year. Thank you all. Bye.

Kathleen, Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may now disconnect.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.