Trade wars, inflation and interest rates shape the financial landscape ahead

After a volatile year dominated by inflation and shifting central bank narratives, global markets enter November navigating familiar but sharper risks. Tariffs have resurfaced as a key geopolitical theme, while persistent inflation and evolving expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves continue to shape sentiment across commodities, cryptocurrencies, and forex pairs. This analysis explores how these intertwined forces, inflation, tariffs, and rate expectations, may influence the next moves in XAUUSD, BTCUSD, and EURUSD.

U.S.–China trade tensions resurface, reigniting global market uncertainty

Renewed friction between the United States and China has returned to center stage. Donald Trump has revived threats of broad tariffs, including the possibility of 100% duties on Chinese goods, while Beijing has responded with export controls and other countermeasures. These tensions are shaking market confidence, reigniting supply chain concerns, and adding pressure to global growth.

Stubborn U.S. Inflation Keeps the Fed Cautious on Rate Cuts 

At the same time, inflation in the United States remains stubbornly high, hovering just below 3% year-over-year. Even though inflation is still outside the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% recent data from the U.S job report are suggesting that maybe the Fed will need to start considering cutting rates before cracks start to form on the labor market. Increased U.S. unemployment and somewhat negative or at least declining non-farm payrolls have shown that the time might be here for interest rates to start declining before any major signs of a weakening economy appear on the horizon. 

President Trump has been vocal on lower interest rates, but the Fed seemed reluctant to do so because in the past, quick reactions have had the opposite results. The combination of renewed trade barriers and elevated input costs complicates the Federal Reserve’s task of bringing prices under control. While the Fed is still expected to cut rates twice by the end of the year, policymakers have maintained a cautious tone, signaling that the line between keeping inflation under control while maintaining a strong labor market is very thin.

Gold could be running out of steam after new all-time high

What is happening on the gold chart is unprecedented and is probably an overstretch to believe that the upward momentum can continue into the near term. What is so extraordinary about this move is that we have more than 50 consecutive sessions of bullish momentum without any significant correction phases, apart from the recent bearish candlesticks. These candlesticks suggest that the bullish trend may be losing some steam, and it's highly probable that a bearish correction could occur in the upcoming sessions. This can also be considered as a FOMO (fear of missing out) run mainly due to a combination of geopolitical tensions around the world as well as expectations of declining interest rates by the Fed.

From a technical analysis perspective, there are signs of a possible reversal, such as the prolonged overbought Stochastic oscillator, which has been in this extreme condition for more than two months straight, as well as the strong resistance of the upper band of the Bollinger Bands pushing the price to the downside. On the other hand, the moving averages continue to validate the overall bullish trend, while the Bollinger Bands are massively expanded, indicating that volatility is present to support any sharp moves.  Even though it's not very wise to buy an instrument near its all-time high, there are some target areas deriving from the Fibonacci retracement levels that could act as support on the price and probably provide some entry points for some short-term long trades. The first possible support area may be seen around $4,125, which corresponds to 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. The second one might be around $4,000, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level and a psychological support level for the round number.

Bitcoin is back in focus after the sell-off

Bitcoin’s recent correction triggered a broad de-risking phase across markets. Futures open interest fell by 14% and funding rates dropped by 57%, indicating that traders reduced leverage and moved to safety. ETF flows flipped from strong inflows to $813 million in outflows, signaling waning institutional appetite. On-chain activity slowed, yet long-term holders continued to accumulate, as realized capitalization rose by 1.4%. Profitability metrics weakened sharply, with supply in profit dropping from 92% to 83%, suggesting capitulation pressure but also laying the groundwork for a potential rebound.

Based on technical analysis, the price of Bitcoin has found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and has since corrected to the upside after a significant selloff triggered in early October. In November it seems to be testing the price area of $108,000, which is supported by the 23.6% daily Fibonacci retracement level and the medium-term low that was retested in late September. The Bollinger Bands are quite expanded, indicating volatility in the market of “digital gold,” while the Stochastic oscillator is on the move to recover from extreme oversold conditions; however, it is still technically in oversold levels. The moving averages are still validating the overall bearish trend; however, a cross in the upcoming sessions might be possible if the price continues its recent bullish momentum. In the near short-term outlook, if the price manages to stay above the support of the 23.6% of the Fibonacci, then a minor push to the upside might face some initial resistance around the $112,000 and then the $116,000, which are the 38.2% and the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.

Fiber tests major levels while declining

The fiber pair has been declining for the majority of the last two months, even before the U.S. government shutdown, which played a significant role in the recent bullish correction that supported the Euro against the greenback. Increased probabilities that the Fed will cut interest rates for the remainder of the year, as well as a weak labor market and stickier inflation, have put pressure on the Dollar and caused the reversal currently seen on the pairs' daily chart.

From the technical analysis point of view, the price has found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and is correcting to the upside. Currently, the price is testing the support of the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level which is also the area that the price failed to break below multiple time in August and early September. If this area holds strong and pushes the price further up then the first potential area of resistance might be found around $1.17 which is the latest high as well as the dynamic resistance area between the two moving averages. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels hinting that the short-term dynamics might move to either direction while the Bollinger Bands are quite expanded showing that there is volatility to support any sharp moves.