November’s highlights: strength overall for the dollar ahead of the Fed

After the end of the longest shutdown of the American government in history and the resumption of some regular economic releases, the US dollar has generally gained strength in November. Gold showed a moderate overall bounce while Bitcoin declined strongly and is among the worst performing major CFDs of 2025 so far. This article examines some of the key themes and narratives from last month and looks ahead to key upcoming news, notably the Fed’s meeting on 10 December, then briefly analyses the charts of XAUUSD, EURUSD and BTCUSD.

American data disrupted but no immediate signs of recession

The 43-day shutdown of the American government in October and November caused significant uncertainty in markets because most important economic figures were delayed. When it did come on 20 November, the NFP for September was somewhat positive broadly as total nonfarm beat the consensus significantly:

116,000 new payrolls bucked the trend of significantly lower figures since May although August’s figure was revised down to negative 4,000. The dollar gained overall in the aftermath while indices mostly declined, although concern over an AI bubble to be discussed below was an important factor there.

Unemployment has now risen for two consecutive months for which data are available:

4.4% in September is a four-year high for unemployment but it’s probably too early to call an extended trend of rising unemployment. The signs of slowdown in the American job market are quite clear but Q2’s GDP was exceptionally positive considering the circumstances and expectations. The Fed’s ready to cut rates further although the timing as noted below is much less certain, plus there’s politics and tariffs to consider.

Impact of politics and trade continues asymmetrically

Japan and Switzerland were among the relevant countries to announce tariff-related economic underperformance in November, but the deal reached between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at their meeting in Korea caused focus in markets to shift generally away from trade. The government’s shutdown was the main political intrigue for markets early in November.

News about Ukraine has been more important recently with oil declining early in November after fresh American sanctions on Russian producers and European leaders generally expressing support for the draft agreement of ceasefire. There’s been more emphasis on politics and specifically fiscal policy for particular currencies, notably the pound and yen.

The unpopular Labour government in Britain has delivered mixed messages on its budget, signalling general hikes to taxes before backtracking while also being likely to expand benefits at least somewhat. Governmental borrowing increased more than expected in November. Despite speculation around the middle of November that the Prime Minister might face a formal challenge for leadership, this isn’t immediately forthcoming, but the extended reaction to the budget is important.

Japan’s new Prime Minister is widely expected to announce a large package of fiscal stimulus, which has hit sentiment on the yen as of the second half of November. Senior members of the Bank of Japan verbally intervened on 21 November to stress their ability to act against volatility and the negative effects of speculation.

Monetary policy generally less certain but probably looser

The nearly certain consensus that the Fed would cut its funds rate again on 10 December declined significantly in November:

As of 21 November, the consensus had flipped to a slightly greater probability of a hold; the probability of a cut had been around 98% in late October. Jerome Powell signalled clearly in the press conference on 29 October that a cut in December isn’t guaranteed and depends on upcoming data, but this is more difficult to predict now that many releases are delayed and less reliable due to the long shutdown of the government.

Elsewhere the European Central Bank seems to have concluded its cycle of loosening for now with inflation under control. The Bank of England might cut to 3.75% on 18 December but the deciding vote remains with Governor Andrew Bailey; the BoJ is currently expected to hike to 0.75% the following day but a postponement seems quite possible given what’s happened for most of 2025 with the consensus shifting further back.

Crypto’s selloff gains pace

Bitcoin has been among the worst performing major CFDs in the fourth quarter so far overall, down more than $40,000 from the all-time high in early October. Sentiment has soured with lower expectations of continuing loosening of monetary policy and lower inflows, especially to ETFs. Long-term holders sold around ₿815,000 in late October and the first half of November, the highest for 30 days since early 2024.

Bitcoin’s basic fundamentals haven’t changed since summer but governmental focus on crypto has declined and riskier instruments are in general less favoured now. Overall higher balances on exchanges might suggest that further selling could be expected in December while the price around $82,000 probably isn’t low enough for new buyers aiming to hold in the long term to accumulate significant positions.

Gold might have found a floor around $4,000

Despite some challenges to sentiment from lower dovish expectations for monetary policy in the USA, gold retained much strength in November with an overall gain from the beginning of the month. Demand remains very high and headwinds for various tech shares might mean it remains so.

Although the price briefly moved below $3,900 in late October it seems now that $4,000 is a likely support since the price hasn’t clearly held below there in November. The main dynamic supports in view are the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA from Bands.

The massive spike in buying volume around 21-22 October might suggest confidence that the uptrend will continue among many participants. The initial target for buyers might be around $4,200, November’s high. The latest all-time high was approximately $4,400, so this might cap another significant round of gains unless there’s fundamental support for a breakout above. The Fed’s meeting on 10 December is a key release here as elsewhere.

Bitcoin might find support around $80,000

Bitcoin’s losses intensified in the second half of November as the more dovish scenarios for the Fed in the near future became less likely and overall sentiment on riskier instruments declined. Inflows to ETFs have been lower in November.

While the downtrend does seem to be strong, volume for CFDs at least clearly doesn’t support it, having declined sharply in early October and only starting to increase again around the middle of November. Traders might often ignore strong oversold signals for a cryptocurrency from Bollinger Bands and the slow stochastic but combined with the tail of 21 November and slightly rising volume it could suggest a bounce or at least a temporary pause.

The obvious target for sellers would be the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement around $75,000 but this seems quite aggressive in the short term. $90,000 might be an area of downward reaction while the 38.2% Fibo might be a short-term resistance or established as a reference.

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The opinions in this article are personal to the writer; they do not represent those of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.