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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 16

If you could only track one economic indicator to monitor the economy the trend in payrolls would be a solid choice. Think of it as the fuel that powers consumer spending engine, which accounts for...
Is Fed Policy Still Too Tight?
By James Picerno - Nov 20, 2024
The next round of central bank decisions could rank among the most challenging in recent history, perhaps in decades. Policy hawks and doves can cite a fair amount of evidence for supporting their...
There’s little about recent history that reflects stability, with at least one exception: the average trailing payout rate on a globally diversified portfolio. There’s been a lot of churning in...
Fourth-quarter economic output for the US looks set for another downshift, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s initial GDP nowcast. The estimate reflects the median for a set of nowcasts published by...
The Trump Factor Takes a Toll on Foreign Stocks
By James Picerno - Nov 15, 2024
The election victory has fueled a strong rally in US equities, but Donald Trump’s comeback is seen as a new risk factor elsewhere as Washington prepares to pivot to new edition of an “America First”...
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the...
Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping. The current...
Defensives are out, animal spirits are in… again. Or so the latest rotation among US equity sectors suggests, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Nov. 11). The recent rush into utilities...
The appetite for US equity risk has wobbled in recent months, but on the first trading day after Trump’s election victory the bullish signaling revived on several fronts, based on numerous sets of...
Elections have consequences and so Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president will surely change the calculus. The policy differences between the Republican president-elect and...