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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 18

Recent economic data has lifted CapitalSpectator.com’s median growth estimate for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. Using a variety of sources to generate a median nowcast, today’s revision...
The rally in recent days of the Russell 2000 Index, a widely followed benchmark of small-cap shares, has revived hope anew that this slice of the equity market is finally set to recover after a long...
The US economy continues to defy the recession forecasts that received much attention in the summer. The primary drivers of economic resilience: strong growth in payrolls and consumer spending. By...
Fears of a US recession in the near term have faded recently, but rate cuts are still on the agenda. The combination of a robust economy and expectations for monetary easing strike some observers as...
Generating solid returns with a globally diversified portfolio strategy has been a breeze this year. Short of making extreme bets in the handful of losers among the major asset classes, the tail wind...
The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...
Economic output for the US remains on track to increase at a robust pace in the government’s upcoming third quarter GDP report scheduled for Oct. 30, based on the median nowcast via several sources...
There are several reasons for downplaying the recent recession warnings. Last week’s dramatically stronger-than-expected rise in September payrolls is one. The revival of US money supply growth in...
As rebounds go, the current revival in the fortunes of stocks in emerging markets surely ranks as one of the more impressive feats in recent history. The caveat: The turnaround is primarily due to...
There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...