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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 22

A lot can happen over the course of a week when it comes to the crowd’s fickle sentiment du jour on matters of recession. At this time a week ago the headlines warned that a contraction, if it hadn’t...
The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...
Betting against the US stock market has been a losing trade in relative terms in recent years and from a top-down down perspective it’s not obvious that’s about to change. But carving up the global...
Early assessments of third-quarter economic activity for the US point to a slowdown vs. Q2, based on the median nowcast for estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The downshift is prominent, but...
It’s been a rough ride in recent weeks, but trend data still leaves room for debate on the prospects for maintaining bullish bets. Using a set of ETFs shows that most of the major asset classes in...
From the vantage of the past week of trading the case looks clear for calling recent market volatility a sign of a risk-off pivot. But if your time horizon is longer, there’s still room for debate,...
Utility stocks have taken the lead in 2024 among US equity sectors following the market sell-off in recent days, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Aug. 6). The spike in market...
Judging by the current numbers, the US expansion almost certainly endures. There are well-founded concerns that the tide may be turning, but that’s still a speculative call. By comparison, published...
The selling that roiled global markets late last week looks set to continue on Monday. Triggered by weaker-than-expected data for the US labor market, the surge in risk-off sentiment took a bite out...
The total return outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in July, marking the first downshift in several months for this forecast. GMI’s long-term estimate now points to an annualized...