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James Smith

ING Think
  • Analysis & Comment

James Smith's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Smith's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Trade deals, tariff fireworks, data drama, this week has had it all. Here are four key takeaways from this whirlwind week – and what we’ll be watching as the story unfolds in the days to...
The UK jobs market is creaking, providing plenty of justification for a 25 basis point rate cut this month. But it’s a nuanced picture, which, set against sticky inflation data, suggests little...
Deadlines, deals, and delays: Is the 1 August tariff ultimatum really any different from what's come and gone before? Maybe not. But tariffs are still more likely to go up than down, argues James...
Central banks just love to cut rates in gradual, 25 basis-point chunks, don't they? Nobody knows why. And frankly, it doesn’t always make much sense, writes James Smith. Should the ECB cut rates next...
Are markets too confident in a September Fed rate cut? Yes. But are central banks too nervous about another inflation wave? Also, yes, argues James Smith. He’s got a bone to pick this week, as the...
UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously...
There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on...
The monthly GDP numbers have been highly volatile, but we do expect slower growth over the coming months as the cooler jobs market and higher rates continue to biteThe UK economy contracted by half a...
The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next...