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Padhraic Garvey, CFA

  • Analysis & Comment

Padhraic Garvey, CFA's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Padhraic Garvey, CFA's articles, including current analysis & comment.

We got the 25bp cut. And it was dovish. Maybe not as dovish as some would like, but it’s reasonably clear that there are more cuts coming. Rates are up, though. On both ends. And the curve...
It’s tough to envisage a hawkish 25bp cut, else why do it in the first place. A dovish 25bp cut is far more likely. If Chair Powell wants to be hawkish, then better to deliver a 50bp cut. Long...
A lot is going on. In the eurozone, it’s all about spreads, particularly French ones. It comes against an underpinning of mild upward pressure on longer core rates, but without much conviction,...
The unfolding saga out of France probably blows over. There have been many before. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant. The market discount certainly sniffs a growing issue. We’ll...
In the US, the Beige Book is quite the sobering read - littered with tariff risk talk and at best flattish activity. Shaping up to be quite the week, with the pivotal upcoming payrolls to cap it off....
Lots of talk of tariff “uncertainty” through Tuesday. There is no uncertainty. Tariffs remain and will remain. Rather upward pressure on longer-dated yields has become a global thing. And...
In the US, the steepener has become the consensus trade, as has setting long end shorts. Price action through Thursday went against that grain; lower yields and a flatter curve; with month-end...
The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it’s laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo...
Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up,...
In September 2019, the system creaked as the Fed had gone too far with bank reserves reduction. We're facing a similar challenge in the coming months as the Treasury replenishes its cash buffer. We...