Padhraic Garvey, CFA's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Padhraic Garvey, CFA's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2
The FOMC minutes seem to be from a different time, pre the payrolls revisions; but can still embolden Powell on Friday. Gilt yields came down on the day of hotter CPI numbers suggesting a possible...
Liquidity circumstances are ample currently, but bank reserves are primed to fall in the coming months, likely re-tightening conditions. There is value in market repo versus the Fed's reverse repo...
US Treasuries traded heavily on Monday, on a day of complexities and different crosswinds that make interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good, safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can...
Thursday likely sees US PPI core inflation back up to 3%, while core CPI inflation was confirmed earlier this week at 3.1%. In all probability these inflation rates will be on the rise in the coming...
German 30-year yields are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar mode, with fiscal and CPI...
We think both US CPI inflation and the US fiscal deficit can come in higher than expected, with the latter most meaningful. Brewing trouble here for Treasuries. In the eurozone, the 2Y euro swap rate...
The ratchet down in the US curve should morph to a steeper curve, and we think it should ultimately be from both ends. In the eurozone, we find that positive growth surprises have the capacity to...
We saw an interesting experiment played out on Wednesday as the market seemed to genuinely believe that Fed Chair Powell was about to be removed. We continue to identify this as a low probability...
Passing the new budget through the French parliament may prove difficult and generate more rate volatility. EGB spreads look tight given defence spending ambitions. US Treasury yields decide to test...