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Investing.com - Global oil demand is set to slip marginally below previous expectations in 2025, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, as weakness in the U.S. and China undercut resilience elsewhere.
World demand in 2025 will rise by 720,000 barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in a report released Tuesday, down 20,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.
Meanwhile, global oil supply in May was up by 1.9 million barrels a day from a year ago, led in part by the unwinding of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts.
For 2025 as a whole, world oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d to 104.9 mb/d and by an additional 1.1 mb/d in 2026, the IEA said, while non-OPEC+ producers are forecast to add 1.4 mb/d on average this year and 840 kb/d next year.
With supply exceeding demand, global observed oil inventories have risen by 1 mb/d on average since February, and by a massive 93 mb in May alone, according to preliminary data available, the Paris-based group said.
"Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. "But recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security.”
On a longer time frame, oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029 and then fall slightly in 2030, based on a table in the IEA’s annual report.
At the same time, global production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.