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Investing.com-- Bank of America raised its year-end forecasts for Japan’s key stock indexes, citing optimism over fiscal expansion and policy continuity under new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanae Takaichi.
BofA said the change in political leadership marked a shift toward growth-oriented policies, lifting its year-end targets for the Nikkei 225 to 49,000 points from 45,000 points and for the TOPIX to 3,300 points from 3,200 points. Analysts said the benchmarks could reach 50,000 points and 3,370 points, respectively, if market momentum continued.
BofA said Takaichi’s administration was likely to pivot from the Ishiba government’s focus on fiscal discipline to a more reflationary stance aimed at boosting nominal growth.
The bank noted that price-to-earnings ratios had climbed to 15.7 times—near the upper end of the typical range but not abnormally high—suggesting valuations remained supported by earnings growth prospects. It forecast 12-month forward earnings per share for the TOPIX to keep rising, assuming profit growth of 13.5% in the next fiscal year.
While BofA warned of potential corrections after the sharp market run-up, it maintained a positive medium-term view, saying share buybacks, a likely supplementary budget, and potential tax reforms could support sentiment. About 6.5 trillion yen worth of announced buybacks remained unexecuted, which could help stabilize prices when markets cool.
The bank also said it favored stocks in sectors aligned with Takaichi’s expected policy direction — including defense, cybersecurity, nuclear energy, and domestic inflation plays such as construction and real estate. It kept a selective overweight stance on AI hardware, nonferrous metals, and industrial electronics.
BofA listed key risks to stocks included a rapid yen depreciation that could prompt currency intervention, early rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, coalition negotiations between the LDP and Komeito, and a potential inflation surprise in the U.S.
Japanese markets rallied to record highs this week after Takaichi won the LDP leadership election, setting her up to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister. A parliamentary session on her prime ministership is set to take place in mid-October.