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* S&P futures last up in volatile trade
* Nasdaq futures surge over 2%
* Investors want decisive result and path to stimulus
By Noel Randewich
Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures jumped early on
Wednesday as President Donald Trump led Democratic rival Joe
Biden in Florida and other competitive swing states that will
help decide the election.
S&P emini futures EScv1 were last up 0.9%, extending a
rally in Tuesday's trading session, when the S&P 500 delivered
its strongest one-day gain in almost a month.
Nasdaq 100 emini futures NQcv1 jumped 2.6%, with some
investors pointing to a lower threat of antitrust scrutiny for
major technology companies under Trump than under a Biden
presidency.
Trump led Biden in Florida, while other competitive swing
states that will help decide the election outcome, such as
Georgia and North Carolina, remained up in the air. U.S. Treasury yields retreated from five-month
highs and Mexico's peso weakened sharply. On betting website Smarkets, odds reflected a 56% chance of
Trump winning, up significantly from 33% earlier in the day.
"Trump is just doing better on the margin everywhere, and
there have not been any big Biden upsets," said Bob Shea, Chief
Executive Officer at TrimTabs Asset Management in New York.
"What we are seeing now is Trump doing better and people are
just defaulting to 'Trump is good for the market', so why not
just buy now and cut to the chase."
Investors for months have said they favor a definitive, fast
resolution to the election, rather than a drawn out process that
many have feared. Quickly settling the election would clear the
way for a deal on a stimulus package to help the damaged U.S.
economy. Early results also suggested the Democrats were less likely
than previously expected to take the Senate from Republicans in
a so-called blue wave, which could mean a more modest stimulus
deal.
"The blue wave outcome that the markets were looking for has
essentially gotten marked down from being a 90% possibility to a
less-than-40% probability," said Tom di Galoma, a managing
director at Seaport Global Holdings in New York.
On election night 2016, U.S. stock index futures plunged as
Trump pulled off an upset victory against Democrat Hillary
Clinton. However, the next day marked the start of the so-called
"Trump rally" that saw the S&P 500 jump 5% in a month, fueled by
promises of massive tax cuts and financial deregulation.
The S&P 500 has climbed about 57% since Trump's election in
2016, with the information technology index .SPLRCT surging
149% and energy .SPNY tumbling 56%, according to Datastream.
In Tuesday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average .DJI rose 2.06%, while the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.78%
and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC climbed 1.85%.
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S&P 500 in first terms: Trump vs Obama https://tmsnrt.rs/34Vuvjy
"Biden" shares vs "Trump" shares https://tmsnrt.rs/3881PWc
Markets under different presidents during history https://tmsnrt.rs/3p35jj4
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(Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)