Why Tesla stock has been rallying in September

Published 29/09/2025, 13:36
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Tesla shares have surged 32% since the end of August, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 3% gain. 

Barclays analysts said in a note Monday that the rally reflects “favorable near-term fundamental datapoints around deliveries / 3Q EPS, and perhaps more importantly around excitement into the Nov 6 AGM plus an increasingly engaged Elon.’”

Barclays argued that the stock’s outperformance is not just about fundamentals. 

“We believe the rally can also be put in context of Tesla as the ‘OG meme stonk,’ with performance also reflecting a combination of technical factors (i.e. option activity / call purchasing), retail excitement, and Mag7 catch-up,” the analysts wrote.

The mix of excitement and positioning has pushed Tesla’s valuation higher. The analysts noted that “these trends have magnified the ongoing disconnect between the stock and near-term earnings power, with the stock trading at a frothy 180x ’26 PE multiple.”

Looking ahead, Barclays expects Tesla to deliver strong third-quarter numbers. “We reiterate our expectation for Tesla to beat on 3Q deliveries,” the note said. 

However, the firm suggested the market may already be pricing in that outcome and warned that “we wouldn’t be surprised if there is a near-term breather.”

Still, Barclays highlighted that the upcoming shareholder meeting could provide another catalyst. 

“Beyond the deliveries print, we think excitement could continue to build into the Nov 6 AGM, which we expect will highlight Elon Musk’s increased engagement with Tesla and excitement on a supercharged growth narrative ahead,” the analysts said.

Barclays concluded that Tesla’s September rally can be explained by “re-engaged Elon, favorable datapoints, and the return of the ‘OG meme stonk.’”

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.