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The UK jobs market is creaking, providing plenty of justification for a 25 basis point rate cut this month. But it’s a nuanced picture, which, set against sticky inflation data, suggests little...
Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold US dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly,...
UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously...
Today's FX market focus is squarely on the June US jobs report. Does a consensus +110k release provide cover for Fed Chair Powell to continue resisting pressure to cut rates? Or will a weak number...
Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...
The Sino-American trade negotiations in London have yielded plans to revive the flow of sensitive goods, but have failed to mark a breakthrough and leave the US dollar still vulnerable to domestic...
The greenback has not held on to post-trade-deal gains for long, and while a soft CPI was the trigger for the correction, we think yesterday’s moves signal a clear preference for strategic short-USD...
The US dollar is enjoying some support thanks to a recovery in US market sentiment. At the moment, no other G10 currency has a higher beta than the dollar to US trade news, and Treasury Secretary...
Global equity markets - especially US equity markets - have been hit hard by President Trump's aggressive 'reciprocal' tariffs. Corporate America is suffering as Trump starts to rewire the global...
High-beta currencies have rallied overnight, perhaps indicating that the US will opt for a flat rate over country-specific tariffs, which could be seen as slightly more lenient. But it’s also been...
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