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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 30

Could Commodities Keep Surging Higher in 2024?
By James Picerno - Apr 04, 2024
In mid-December, CapitalSpectator.com mused: “Are Commodities A Compelling Contrarian Trade For 2024?” The answer so far this year continues to be “yes,” as a rally for prices...
Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday’s relatively firm manufacturing survey data for March.Markets are still pricing in...
The long-run performance estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in March vs. the previous month. Today’s revised forecast (based on three models defined below) indicates a...
The rally in global assets broadened in March, lifting nearly every slice of the major asset classes. The downside outlier: bonds in emerging markets. Otherwise, last month delivered a clean sweep of...
Is the Worst Over for Bonds?
By James Picerno - Mar 27, 2024
The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...
The roaring US stock market has delivered red-hot gains in recent history, but at the expense of future returns. That, at least, is one interpretation via earnings-yield and dividend-yield models that...
The stock market is soaring and the rising tide has lifted small-cap shares, but if you’ve been expecting a hefty premium (or any premium) in smaller firms, well, there’s still plenty of...
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion shows signs of slowing.Output for the January-through-March period is...
The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year. Despite the apparent conflict, the...
The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies.But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022,...