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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 33

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...
The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...
Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...
Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...
It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.Yet the forecast still...
It’s lonely at the top. American shares are posting strong year-to-date results in 2024. Granted, it’s only early February.But the striking distance between the gain in US stocks vs. the...
We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...
Betting on the demise of the long-running leadership of US shares over foreign markets has been a losing proposition for some time and the early going in 2024 suggests the trend persists.It’s...
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below).GMI is a...
Global markets were mixed in January following a strong finish in 2023 that lifted nearly all corners. Commodities bounced back last month, leading the major asset classes, while property shares led...