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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 35

Reviewing 2023 results for the major asset classes reflects a long list of winners, with one conspicuous downside outlier: commodities.Amid widespread gains in global markets last year, the red ink in...
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...
There’s no shortage of reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook for markets, but reviewing trend behavior via several sets of ETF pairs continues to reflect a positive trend for risk...
The runup in yields for most of the major asset classes has peaked, based on the trailing 1-year payout rates for a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Jan. 5, 2024).That’s hardly...
Uncertainty is as thick as ever for diving into what awaits in the year ahead, but there’s still a growing consensus building that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest...
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, easing to an expected 6.7% annualized total return, based on the average for three models (defined below).GMI...
Real estate securities rebounded sharply in December, leading the broad-based gains for the major asset classes in the final month of 2023, based on a set of ETFs.Commodities, by contrast, were the...
The outlook for the US economy is on track to close 2023 with a relatively upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The official Q4 GDP...
The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over.Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of 2024...
Are Rate Cuts Coming Sooner Than Expected?
By James Picerno - Dec 20, 2023
Markets are becoming increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024. The first cut is expected at the March 20 monetary policy meeting.Fed funds futures are...