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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 9

The US stock market is struggling this year, but the low-volatility equity risk premium is still outperforming by a wide margin year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Mar. 25)....
New data published on Monday reaffirms that the US economy is still growing, and the odds remain low that a recession has started or is imminent. The rapidly changing state of tariffs could change...
It’s been a rough year for the US stock market so far, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at year-to-date returns for energy and healthcare shares, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...
Investing in just about anything other than US stocks has been a winning strategy this year. Using a set of ETF proxies shows that American shares are still the only source of red ink among the major...
A Fed Rate Cut May Be Near, But Not Today
By James Picerno - Mar 19, 2025
The surge in macro uncertainty related to tariffs, including the possibility of a global trade war, has complicated the Fed’s already difficult task of setting interest rates to accommodate an...
The recent downshift in estimates for US economic output in the first quarter persists, based on the revised median nowcast for a set of analytics compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The sluggish...
The appetite for risk has taken a hit in recent weeks, although the worst of the selling has, so far, been contained to US stocks, on a year-to-date basis. The rest of the primary markets around the...
The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, March 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak – a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%. A “bear market,”...
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by...
The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...