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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 5

The US stock market has recovered most of its recent losses, and the rebound has left momentum strategies far ahead in the performance horse race for equity factor results this year, based on a set...
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is...
US stocks rebounded in May, posting the first monthly gain since January. The strong recovery lifted American shares to the top of the leaderboard for the major asset classes last month, based on a...
The mega-spending bill that the House passed now awaits debate in the Senate. A key issue for markets is how, or if, the legislation will be amended with respect to projections that, if passed, the...
The government bond market had been more or less flatlining since  since President Trump on Apr. 2 announced “Liberation Day” and rolled out US tariffs, which sparked concern about inflation. But in...
Uncertainty about inflation, the economy, and trade policy continues to blur the macro outlook, which in turn supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at the...
US economic output remains on track to rebound in the second quarter following the slight decline in Q1, based on the median estimate for a set of GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The...
Market sentiment has been a wild ride in recent months, but for the moment investors are breathing a sigh of relief, based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes for year-to-date returns...
Global diversification for bonds has been a tough sell in recent years, but 2025 is another story. Year to date, fixed-income securities ex-US are outperforming the investment-grade US benchmark for...
The US 10-year yield was steady in April in terms of the market premium relative to a “fair value” estimate. The 10-year yield’s monthly average last month remained mostly unchanged at roughly 40...