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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Comment

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 8

Is inflation or slower growth, and perhaps recession, the priority? This basic question hangs over the Federal Reserve as it grapples with deciding how to respond to global trade war. The risks shot...
Pursuing a structual, sudden change in US trade policy is one thing. That alone is disruptive. Even if it’s a net plus in the longer term (a debatable proposition), the current burden that’s weighing...
Is a US Recession Inevitable?
By James Picerno - Apr 07, 2025
A rising chorus of forecasts suggests as much. But for the moment, this is still guesswork as markets struggle to price in a dramatically altered macro outlook due to the rising risk of a global...
The US is the world’s leading exporter of services to the global economy. The services sector is also the dominant source of economic activity in America. Those are strengths, but they’re also...
Managing Expectations for a Global Trade War
By James Picerno - Apr 03, 2025
The sweeping policy change for US tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump is a game-changer for the global economy. Exactly how trade flows shift, economies pivot, and governments around the...
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell again in March, dropping to an annualized 6.9% vs. the previous month’s 7.1%. The analysis is based on three models (defined...
Commodities led widespread rallies in March for the major asset classes based on a set of ETFs. US assets posted the only losses last month, with American shares leading on the downside. The iShares...
Measuring shifts in uncertainty is a slippery beast, but it’s easier to intuit when big changes unfold vs. the recent past. We’re knee-deep in one of those moments. One of the tell-tale signs is that...
Economic output is estimated to downshift sharply in next month’s official GDP report for the first quarter, based on the median nowcast from several sources. Recessionary conditions will likely be...
President Trump’s latest announcement on tariffs is a reminder that macro uncertainty is high and will probably remain so for the near term. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars...