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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 12

Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps...
We expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core inflation reading in the US today. We see the rise in the USD/JPY as an indication that fast money is probably positioned for a stronger figure, meaning there are...
The FX market appears in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI. Today, there aren’t key data releases, but we’ll keep an eye on speeches by Fed member John Williams and the...
The dollar is back around Friday’s open levels against most G10 currencies as markets face contradicting indications from the jobs market and ISM services index. Expect a quiet start to the week...
Hawks and doves might both be satisfied with yesterday's Fed minutes. Stressing conditionality seems inconsistent with March cut expectations, but the openness to a QT exit and concerns about the...
The dollar jumped yesterday as investors started to return from the long Christmas break. Markets are unwinding some dovish bets, and questioning stretched equity valuations, ultimately favoring...
The Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged and made no changes to its forward guidance, pushing the yen down against the dollar. But we think the shift in tone is clear and major...
The dollar is recovering some ground after the pushback from Fed officials against rate-cut bets. However, the dovish Dot Plot may work as an anchor for rates and keep the dollar soft into the end of...
It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...
The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank...