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Francesco Pesole

ING Think
  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 8

Markets continue to carefully assess the implications of Russia-US talks, but we are observing an emerging trend of euro underperformance linked to Trump’s growing isolationism against EU allies....
Should Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace deal, the US dollar is probably due another moderate correction – but for now, markets are lacking tangible bearish USD drivers and we think the...
The US dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China...
We observe that key China proxies like AUD have erased their risk premium on the back of a consensus view that Beijing will secure a deal with the US and prevent an escalation in trade tensions. We...
Markets are readjusting after Trump’s last-minute deals with Mexico and Canada which delayed tariffs by a month. From now on, markets may well handle tariff threats even more cautiously, but a new...
Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...
CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...
The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...
Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...
The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...