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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7

The Fed revised its dot plot projections to two cuts in 2025, but guidance remains more hawkish than market pricing. We don’t expect Powell to get in the way of a dollar recovery if data allows...
Market pricing suggests some dovish tweak in the Fed communication today, but we think Chair Powell will want to see hard evidence of a slowdown and will remain cautious for now. The US dollar can...
The week started with another US data disappointment, as softer-than-expected retail sales added to worries about a deteriorating consumer picture. Today, geopolitical developments are in focus as...
Despite a cooler-than-expected US core CPI print yesterday, the US dollar is recovering some ground. The focus now shifts to PPI figures today as well as the discussion within the Senate to approve a...
EUR/USD is trading at 1.08 following gargantuan moves in European yields. At the current level, the pair is only 1.2% overvalued in our calculation, and we’d be cautious to pick a top before the ECB...
As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a...
The US dollar has come under some pressure on the back of the rerating of the US growth outlook and expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is nearing an end. However, we expect US tariffs to...
Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...
Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro (EUR/USD) got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without...
The US dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The USD/JPY is the big winner, receiving extra help...