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Claudia Sahm

https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/
  • Analysis & Comment

Claudia Sahm's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Claudia Sahm's articles, including current analysis & comment.

After an avalanche of data last week, there are more signs of a slowing economy. Real GDP rose modestly in the first half, and inflation started to drift up. The labor market was the last piece to...
The summer months should bring more clarity on how President Donald Trump’s economic policies are affecting the economy. More clarity is what the Fed wants before making further changes to interest...
The Fed will remain on hold today, and the main justification is the risk of persistently higher inflation due to tariffs. However, the inflation data through May have been weaker than expected, with...
Could DOGE Cause a US Recession?
By Claudia Sahm - Mar 08, 2025
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks. Narratives about the U.S. economic outlook have darkened in the past month as concerns about...
Inflation: Just How Worried Should We Really Be?
By Claudia Sahm - Feb 18, 2025
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations. Excluding food and energy, the news was not much better, with a 0.45% advance. It was a...
The Fed Won't Get to Be Boring for Too Long
By Claudia Sahm - Feb 01, 2025
The Fed’s meeting lived up to expectations: boring. Boring is fine. They kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The only market reaction resulted from some heavy-handed...
On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) with...
My interview on Bloomberg last week started with a trillion-dollar question: It is important that we don’t just look at a GDP number and say, “Oh, it’s almost 3%,” and move on. We need to stop and...
Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people. This post, an excerpt from my new Bloomberg Opinion piece,...