On Thursday, Barclays (LON:BARC) made a notable change to its stance on American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAL), upgrading the stock from Underweight to Equal-weight and raising the price target to $16.00, up from the previous $10.00.
The adjustment comes as the airline shows potential for improvement in its balance sheet leverage and business travel share, with further opportunities expected as it renegotiates co-brand card agreements in 2025.
American Airlines has endured a challenging year, marked by an aggressive commercial strategy that aimed to shift corporate customers to its booking channel, reducing dependence on third-party Global Distribution System (GDS) providers. This strategy initially led to customer pushback and a loss of market share in the profitable corporate travel sector.
However, the airline is anticipated to reclaim some of this lost territory thanks to a reversal of the unfavorable commercial policies and leveraging new co-brand card agreements. Additionally, labor contracts have been settled, which is predicted to contribute to a more optimistic earnings outlook.
Barclays highlighted that American Airlines is likely to experience higher cash flow due to probable Boeing (NYSE:BA) delivery delays, which would enhance the company's capacity to manage significant debt maturities coming due in 2025. This includes the $1 billion of convertible notes mentioned by the analyst. The combination of these factors has led to a more favorable view of American Airlines' future financial performance.
The airline's strategy over the past year, which aimed to redirect corporate customers to its proprietary booking system, was met with resistance and resulted in a competitive disadvantage in terms of corporate travel yield performance.
Despite these challenges, American Airlines is expected to make a turnaround, as the company is set to renegotiate its co-brand card agreements and has now settled its labor contracts, creating a foundation for cost efficiencies.
In summary, Barclays' upgraded rating and increased price target for American Airlines reflect a belief in the airline's potential to enhance its business model and financial standing in the coming years.
In other recent news, American Airlines has been the focus of several significant developments. The airline failed to overturn an antitrust ruling that blocked its partnership with JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU), marking a major setback. In contrast, American Airlines has extended its Tax Benefit Preservation Plan to 2027, aimed at protecting the company's tax assets and reducing federal income tax liabilities.
On the analyst front, Jefferies increased its price target for American Airlines to $12.00, maintaining a "Hold" rating, reflecting an improved outlook for the company's fourth-quarter revenue metrics. Similarly, Citi raised its price target to $16.00, keeping a "Buy" rating, and TD Cowen along with BofA Securities increased their price targets to $10.00.
In terms of financial performance, American Airlines reported robust third-quarter earnings, with an adjusted pretax profit of $271 million and earnings per share of $0.30, exceeding estimates. Total (EPA:TTEF) revenue reached $13.6 billion, marking a 1.2% year-over-year increase. The airline has also outlined plans to reduce total debt by at least $13 billion by the end of 2024 and grow premium seating by 20% by 2026.
These are recent developments that investors may find noteworthy.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro adds depth to Barclays' optimistic outlook on American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL). The company's market cap stands at $9.21 billion, with a P/E ratio of 33.51, reflecting investor expectations of future growth. Notably, AAL has shown strong recent performance, with a 43.84% price return over the last three months and an 18.03% return in the past month, aligning with Barclays' upgraded stance.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that 8 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, suggesting growing confidence in AAL's financial trajectory. This corresponds with Barclays' view on the airline's potential for improved earnings. Additionally, AAL is noted as a prominent player in the Passenger Airlines industry, reinforcing its market position as it works to reclaim corporate travel share.
However, the InvestingPro data also reveals that AAL operates with a significant debt burden, which ties into Barclays' discussion about the company's need to manage upcoming debt maturities. This underscores the importance of the potential cash flow improvements from Boeing delivery delays mentioned in the article.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for AAL, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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