Tuesday, Blue Bird Corp (NASDAQ:BLBD) received an optimistic update from Craig-Hallum, with the firm raising the stock's price target to $71 from $68. The analyst maintained a Buy rating on the shares, highlighting a strong finish to the fiscal year 2024 (FY24).
Blue Bird's fourth-quarter revenues, EBITDA, and EPS surpassed Wall Street estimates, achieving record levels for the fiscal year. The analyst noted the company's positive trend and momentum are expected to continue into fiscal year 2025 (FY25), with revenue guidance reaffirmed and EBITDA guidance raised. The long-term profitability targets have also been revised upwards, suggesting a path to an EBITDA of over $300 million and potentially a significantly higher share price.
The company's backlog stood at approximately 4,800 units, valued at $735 million, and the electric vehicle (EV) backlog increased quarter-over-quarter to 630 units, worth over $200 million. Despite $6 million in one-time items affecting the fourth quarter, the company still managed to report its best fourth-quarter results in history and marked the eighth consecutive quarter of surpassing expectations and improving forecasts.
Blue Bird's competitive edge in alternative power systems, along with recent price increases of $3,500 in October, supports the firm's reiteration of a Buy rating. The analyst also addressed investor concerns regarding the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean School Bus funding, expressing confidence that the funding is likely to remain a supportive factor for Blue Bird's business.
In other recent news, Blue Bird Corporation reported a record fiscal year in 2024, with a significant focus on electric vehicle (EV) sales. The company's bus sales rose by 6%, totaling 9,000 units, and a 19% increase in sales revenue. Notably, Blue Bird's adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $183 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 13.6%. The company's adjusted free cash flow also reached $99 million.
The production and deliveries of electric buses grew by 30%, with EVs making up 8% of total sales. Looking ahead, Blue Bird anticipates net revenue of $1.4-$1.5 billion for fiscal 2025 and expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $190-$210 million. The company aims to grow EV unit sales by 64% and achieve a 14% adjusted EBITDA margin.
In addition, Blue Bird has completed its first collective bargaining agreement with the United Steel Workers and received an $80 million investment grant from the Department of Energy for facility expansion. The company is set to benefit from the EPA's $5 billion Clean School Bus Program, which is expected to contribute to supplying up to 4,000 EV buses over the next three years.
InvestingPro Insights
Blue Bird Corp's recent performance aligns with the positive outlook presented by Craig-Hallum. According to InvestingPro data, the company's revenue growth of 19.53% over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 supports the analyst's observation of strong financial performance. This growth is further reflected in the impressive EBITDA growth of 970.76% over the same period, indicating significant operational improvements.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Blue Bird's net income is expected to grow this year, which corroborates the analyst's optimistic view on the company's profitability trajectory. Additionally, the stock has shown a high return over the last year, with a 132.9% price total return, demonstrating strong investor confidence in the company's direction.
The company's P/E ratio of 13.92 suggests that despite the recent price increases, the stock may still be reasonably valued considering its growth prospects. This could support the analyst's higher price target and Buy rating.
For investors seeking more comprehensive insights, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Blue Bird Corp, providing a deeper analysis of the company's financial health and market position.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.