On Monday, Guggenheim raised the price target on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock to $950 from the previous $825, while reiterating a Buy rating for the streaming giant.
The firm's analyst cited Netflix's continued dominance in the streaming space as a key factor for the company's potential to deliver sustained long-term returns to shareholders. Despite a recent 10% drop in Netflix shares from their early December peak, which the analyst attributes to a demanding valuation, premature expectations for upside to the 2025 guidance, and foreign exchange headwinds, the outlook remains positive.
Guggenheim highlighted that expectations are set for Netflix to conclude its regular member count disclosures on a positive note, driven by significant engagement with its live events and franchise content. A survey conducted by Guggenheim specialist Seth Ostrie showed that over 70% of the 45 respondents anticipate more than 11.1 million net additions for the quarter, with 29% expecting over 13.1 million. This optimism has led Guggenheim to increase its own estimate to 10.5 million, up from 9.5 million and above the sell-side consensus of 9.1 million.
Despite downward revisions to the 2025 estimates due to foreign exchange challenges, Guggenheim expects Netflix to achieve approximately 14% core revenue growth. The firm believes this growth will be supported by several factors: the potential for global member growth, the company's ability to adjust subscription pricing, the expansion of ad revenue—especially from ad-supported content reaching premium subscribers—and Netflix's strategy of sourcing content across multiple markets, which serves as a natural hedge against a strong U.S. dollar.
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