On Friday, Stifel, a financial services firm, raised the price target on Air Canada (TSX:AC:CN) (OTC: ACDVF) to Cdn$28.00 from Cdn$25.50. The firm also reaffirmed its Buy rating on the airline’s shares. The adjustment follows Air Canada’s recent investor day, during which the company presented its 2025 guidance and a detailed growth strategy that anticipates an average annual revenue increase of approximately 7-8% through 2028. This strategy includes a 100 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin, aiming for over 17%.
The analyst from Stifel noted that while Air Canada’s financial targets generally met their expectations, they fell short of the more optimistic projections held by others, leading to an approximate 9% drop in the company’s share price. The market had expected more aggressive yield and margin improvements and a quicker progression towards higher EBITDA margins, considering the ongoing high-cost environment that could dampen the benefits of efficiency and scale.
The Stifel analyst suggested that Air Canada’s medium-term targets might contain an element of caution, particularly in light of various macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential impact of a weak Canadian dollar on travel demand within Canada. As a result, the analyst anticipates that the stock’s valuation might stay within a cautious "show me" phase in the near term.
Despite these challenges, the analyst believes that Air Canada’s stock is not overvalued at present. The airline’s Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), a share buyback program, is expected to underpin the stock’s performance and provide benefits to investors with a long-term perspective.
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