(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are
his own)
* Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ph2efa
By John Kemp
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Ensuring everyone in developing
countries has the same access to modern energy services that
residents of the advanced economies take for granted will
require an enormous rise in electricity generation.
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which were
agreed by governments in 2015, commit member states to take
urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
But they also include a commitment to ensure universal
access to affordable, reliable and sustainable modern energy
services (“Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for
sustainable development”, United Nations, 2015).
In practice, that means providing universal access to
electricity in adequate amounts, at reasonable prices, and
generated without releasing excessive emissions of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere.
Environmental campaigners and governments in the advanced
economies, where electricity has been plentiful for half a
century, and consumption has been flat recently, tend to put
more emphasis on the climate goal.
But for governments in developing countries, where
consumption is still much lower, and some households and
businesses lack electrical connections at all, increasing energy
access is at least as important, if not more so.
In these countries, there is still enormous unmet demand for
modern energy services – including cooking, air-conditioning,
lighting and power for modern appliances, such as refrigerators,
televisions and computers.
ELECTRICITY USE
In 2014, Nigeria's electricity consumption per capita was
just 145 kilowatt-hours (kWh), India averaged 805 kWh and
Indonesia averaged 812 kWh, according to data from the World
Bank (https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ph2efa).
Per capita electricity consumption in other middle-income
countries was substantially higher, including Mexico (2,150 kWh)
and Brazil (2,600 kWh) (“World development indicators”, World
Bank, 2019).
Further along the development path, China was consuming an
average of 3,900 kWh, while the EU was using almost 6,000 kWh
and the United States was at nearly 13,000 kWh.
If populous developing countries such as India, Indonesia
and Nigeria want to lift consumption to the same level as China,
let alone the EU or the United States, generation will have to
rise by almost an order of magnitude.
Per capita electricity consumption has been falling slightly
in North America and Western Europe for more than a decade as a
result of rising prices, efficiency improvements and offshoring
of many energy-intensive industries.
But consumption is still rising rapidly in most developing
economies, with gains averaging 1-3% per year in Mexico and
Brazil, 5-6% in India and Indonesia, and as much as 7-10% in
China, over the decade from 2004 to 2014.
ENERGY TRANSITION
Under existing climate change agreements, policymakers
envisage a worldwide energy transition from CO2-emitting fossil
fuels to cleaner electricity generated from zero-emission wind,
solar and nuclear sources.
But the challenge is not just to install a few rooftop solar
panels or windfarms to replace existing coal, gas and
diesel-fired power plants or provide a few hours of electricity
each day to communities that currently have none.
The real challenge is to replace existing CO2-emitting power
plants; while simultaneously meeting an increase in electricity
consumption of roughly an order of magnitude; and shift much of
the petroleum-based transportation system to electricity,
increasing electricity consumption even further.
The massive implied increase in electricity generation will
be very difficult to achieve without using coal and gas for the
next several decades, as well as wind, solar and nuclear
generating stations.
The scale of the challenge helps explain why atmospheric CO2
is not even close to stabilising, as policymakers have promised
under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations need to stabilise at no more
than 450 parts per million and preferably 430 ppm to limit
global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius or preferably 1.5
degrees.
But concentrations have already reached 412 ppm, up from 388
ppm a decade ago, according to a time series of regular
observations from the observatory at Mauna Loa in Hawaii dating
back to the 1950s.
CO2 concentrations look set to breach the lower limit in
under ten years, and the upper target in less than 20 years,
based on the trend in the Mauna Loa data (“Scripps CO2 program”,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography).
Given the timescales needed for economy-wide energy
transitions, which usually stretch into decades, these targets
now look impossible to meet.
Related columns:
- Urbanisation and rising energy consumption (Reuters, Nov.
13) - Global travel revolution challenges energy and climate
targets (Reuters, Oct. 31) - Rising energy use to push CO2 far above target through
2050 (Reuters, Sept. 26) - Climate change targets are slipping out of reach (Reuters,
April 16) (Editing by Louise Heavens)