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RPT-UPDATE 2-OPEC+ panel discusses weaker oil demand outlook, Libya output - sources

Published 15/10/2020, 14:21
Updated 15/10/2020, 16:00
© Reuters.

(Repeats to fix graphic links)
* OPEC compliance with cuts: https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-OPEC/qzjvqajmdvx/
* Non-OPEC compliance with cuts: https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-OPEC/nmovaykoava/

By Rania El Gamal and Ahmad Ghaddar
DUBAI/LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - An OPEC+ technical
committee on Thursday discussed higher oil supply as production
resumes in Libya along with a weaker demand outlook due to a
second wave of coronavirus infections, two OPEC+ sources said.
The Joint Technical Committee, which includes
representatives from key OPEC+ producers such as Saudi Arabia
and Russia, met to review compliance with its global oil output
cuts and to review the oil market.
OPEC+ - producers from the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and others including Russia - have been
reducing output since January 2017 in a bid to balance the
market, support prices and reduce inventories.
They are currently curbing production by 7.7 million barrels
per day (bpd), down from 9.7 million bpd, and are due to taper
their production cuts by 2 million bpd in January.
But a bearish demand outlook and rising supply from Libya
mean OPEC+ could roll over existing cuts into next year and
delay easing the reductions, OPEC+ sources say.
The group had 102% compliance with its production cuts in
September, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
At Thursday's meeting, OPEC+ delegates discussed a slow
demand recovery in the fourth quarter of this year, when
seasonally it was expected to rise, one of the sources said.
The resumption of oil production from Libya and lack of a
vaccine for COVID-19, plus a rise in infections and renewed
restrictions to try to contain the pandemic, could mean a
downward revision for oil demand, creating a bearish outlook for
the market in the coming months, this source said.
The panel discussed a scenario where demand would contract
by 10.8 million bpd in 2020 and Libyan production would rise,
creating an OECD stocks overhang at 265 million barrels above
the latest five-year average in the last quarter of this year,
the source said.
For 2021, stocks would be at 301 million barrels above the
five-year average in the last quarter, compared with 245
million, 181 million and 173 million in the first three
quarters.
Separately OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told a
conference on Thursday that demand was recovering at a slower
pace than expected.
"We have to be realistic that this recovery is not picking
up pace at the rate that we expected earlier in the year," he
said. "Demand itself is still looking anaemic." OPEC+ is due to meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 to set policy.

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