UPDATE 2-OPEC+ faces "major challenge" from competitors' surging output - IEA

(Adds details, graphics)
* OPEC, allies to discuss supply-curb policy on Dec. 5-6
* Output from de facto OPEC leader Saudi rebounds sharply
* Slow refining cuts crude demand for first time in decade

By Noah Browning
LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and its allies face stiffening competition
in 2020, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, adding
urgency to the oil producer group's policy meeting next month.
"The OPEC+ countries face a major challenge in 2020 as
demand for their crude is expected to fall sharply," the
Paris-based agency said in a monthly report.
The IEA estimated non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3
million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared to 1.8 million
bpd in 2019, citing production from the United States, Brazil,
Norway and Guyana.
"The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during
the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+
ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month," it
added.
While U.S. supply rose by 145,000 bpd in October, the IEA
said, a slowdown in activity that started earlier this year
looks set to continue as companies prioritise capital
discipline.
Demand for crude oil from OPEC in 2020 will be 28.9 million
bpd, the IEA forecast, 1 million bpd below the exporter club's
current production.
The recovery by OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia from
attacks on the country's oil infrastructure contributed 1.4
million bpd to the global oil supply increase in October of 1.5
million bpd.
"With plans underway for the Aramco IPO and the persistent
need for revenues to fund the government budget, Riyadh has
every incentive to keep oil prices supported," the IEA said.
Saudi state oil company Aramco, the world's most profitable
firm, starts a share sale on Nov. 17 in an initial public
offering (IPO) that may raise between $20 billion and $40
billion.
It was the IEA's last monthly report before the Dec. 5-6
talks among OPEC states and partners led by Russia on whether to
maintain supply curbs aimed at buoying prices and balancing the
market.
The agency kept its assessments for growth in global oil
demand in 2019 and 2020 at 1 million bpd and 1.2 million bpd
respectively, but said its outlook might slightly underestimate
the impact of tariffs from the U.S.-China trade war.
The IEA said that if some or all tariffs were lifted in
coming months, "world economic growth and oil demand growth
would both rise significantly", though the rebound may not be
immediate.
Sluggish refinery activity in the first three quarters has
caused crude oil demand to fall in 2019 for the first time since
2009, the IEA said, but refining is set to rebound sharply in
the fourth quarter and in 2020.

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OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Change, OPEC+ Output https://tmsnrt.rs/2OcR5KU
Non-OPEC oil supply, change year-on-year https://tmsnrt.rs/2QmO0KW
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