UPDATE 3-Nigeria exits recession in 4th quarter despite full-year contraction

* Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/3uakcm3
* Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2N9NPn6

(Updates with Nigeria's recession exit)
By Chijioke Ohuocha
ABUJA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Nigeria exited recession in the
fourth quarter despite a full-year contraction in 2020,
reflecting the easing of COVID-19 induced restrictions, the
statistics office said on Thursday.
Africa's largest economy achieved economic growth of 0.11%
in the last three months of 2020, the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) said, following contractions in the second and
third quarters.
Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the
pandemic triggered recession and created large financing gaps,
including dollar shortages and inflation.
"Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual
return of economic activities following the easing of restricted
movements and limited local and international commercial
activities in the preceding quarters," the NBS said.
Nigeria's economy contracted 1.92% in 2020, its second
annual contraction since 2016. It grew 2.27% in 2019.
The World Bank had estimated a 4% contraction in 2020. The
International Monetary Fund had forecast 3.2%.
"Our expectation had been for a deeper Nigeria GDP
contraction of 4.3% in 2020," said Razia Khan, chief economist
for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered.
"That said, we expect that oil sector growth will remain
negative for much of H1 2021, given Nigeria's compliance with
OPEC+ production cuts," Khan said, adding that the current
second wave of COVID-19 is a concern.
The NBS said the non-oil sector, which the government is
trying to make the main growth sector, rose 1.69% in the fourth
quarter. Telecoms, crop production, real estate, food
manufacturing and construction lifted growth in the quarter.
Oil, which accounts for around two-thirds of government
revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, contracted 19.76% in the
fourth quarter as crude production fell to 1.56 million barrels
per day from the third quarter.
The IMF said in December it expected Nigeria's economy to
grow by 1.5% in 2021. "We expect that growth will gather pace in the second half,
as distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine accelerates," said William
Attwell, sub-Saharan Africa risk analyst at Fitch Solutions.

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Nigeria slides into recession https://tmsnrt.rs/3uakcm3
Nigeria's Rising Inflation https://tmsnrt.rs/2N9NPn6
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