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FOREX-Dollar treads water before Fed, sterling steadies on looming election

Published 30/10/2019, 07:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar treads water before Fed, sterling steadies on looming election
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* All eyes on Fed's policy decision due later Wednesday

* UK to hold general election on Dec 12 to break Brexit

deadlock

* US-China deal may not be ready for signing at APEC

summit:source

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tomo Uetake

TOKYO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The dollar traded narrowly as

markets braced for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later on

Wednesday, while sterling steadied after Britain's lower house

of parliament approved calling an early election in December

that might break the Brexit deadlock.

The dollar was steady against the euro at $1.1110 EUR= and

flat versus a basket of six major currencies at 97.698 .DXY as

investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision.

Against the yen, the greenback was also little moved at

108.84 yen JPY= , not far from its three-month high of 109.07

yen touched on Tuesday.

The U.S. central bank is expected to cut its policy rate for

a third time in a row when it concludes its two-day meeting on

Wednesday.

After lowering interest rates in July and September, the

central bank was expected to cut again by 25 basis points,

taking the fed funds rate to 1.50%-1.75%, a Reuters poll of

economists found. Another cut is forecast for early next year,

taking the rate to 1.25%-1.50%, with no more changes expected

for the rest of 2020. "With a cut today completely priced in, markets are looking

to the Fed's stance on its policy outlook," said Masahiro

Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset

Management.

Investors are watching for any indication that further cuts

are likely, with futures pricing suggesting more easing is

expected in 2020. If that is not foreshadowed, traders expect

the dollar to rise.

"If the market is going to price in the end of current

rate-cut cycle, the dollar/yen could climb above 110 yen," said

Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan rates and FX research at JPMorgan.

"On the other hand, if the market is going to price in two

more cuts after this month's expected cut, the pair could fall

to mid-107 yen level," he added.

Optimism that Washington and Beijing would finalise the

first-stage of a trade deal next month had boosted risk assets

in recent days, but markets turned wary on the prospect this

could be delayed.

A U.S. administration official said on Tuesday an interim

trade agreement between the United States and China might not be

completed in time for signing on the sidelines of an

Asia-Pacific summit in Chile next month, but that does not mean

the accord is falling apart. Meanwhile, hopes that a disorderly Brexit can still be

avoided supported the pound.

Britain will hold its first December election in almost a

century after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won approval from the

lower house of parliament on Tuesday for an early ballot aimed

at breaking the deadlock over the UK leaving the European

Union. The bill calling for a Dec.12 election now goes to the

House of Lords for approval. On Monday, the EU agreed to a three-month flexible delay to

Britain's departure. Before settling back, the pound climbed as high as $1.2903

overnight on news that an election date was likely to be agreed.

"Sterling has struggled to hold onto modest knee-jerk gains

because the outcome of an election is highly uncertain," said

Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

While Johnson seeks to gain a parliamentary majority to

ratify his Brexit deal, the outcome of the election remains

unpredictable, with large numbers of voters fatigued and enraged

by the Brexit process over the past three years. Both major

parties, the ruling Conservatives and opposition Labour, have

suffered an erosion of support among their traditional

vote-banks.

Sterling last stood at $1.2865 GBP=D4 .

Elsewhere, Chinese yuan inched up marginally as investors

awaited the outcome of the Fed meeting and more clarity on how

Sino-U.S. trade negotiations are going.

In the spot market, onshore spot yuan CNY=CFXS was last

changing hands at 7.0650, 25 pips firmer than the previous late

session close.

Prior to market opening, the People's Bank of China (PBOC)

set the midpoint rate CNY=PBOC at a two-month high of 7.0582

per dollar, 35 pips firmer than Tuesday's fix.

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