(Bloomberg) -- The outbreak of the coronavirus and China’s efforts to stop its spread mean economists are again revising their estimates for output this quarter, with the median forecast now for year-on-year growth to be 4.2%, the weakest in 30 years.
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Barclays (LON:BARC) Plc cut their forecasts over the weekend after February factory data fell to a record low, and now expect full-year growth to be below 5%.
The median forecast last week was that gross domestic product would grow 5.5% in 2020, according to a survey of economists. That was already down from the forecast of 5.9% in January, but without taking into account the slump in the gauge of factory activities posted on Feb. 29.
Read more: China’s depleted coffers that challenge economic re-building after virus
Some analysts now expect a sizable drop in economic activity this quarter, compared to the last three months of 2019.
Economists forecasts about the economy
(Update to add new Barclays (LON:BARC), ANZ, Nomura forecast at top of table.)
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Lin Zhu in Beijing at lzhu243@bloomberg.net;Yinan Zhao in Beijing at yzhao300@bloomberg.net;Cynthia Li in Hong Kong at cli205@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, James Mayger
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