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FOREX-Dollar bolstered by U.S. jobs data, markets look to trade talks

Published 09/12/2019, 03:53
Updated 09/12/2019, 03:54
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar bolstered by U.S. jobs data, markets look to trade talks
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* U.S. nonfarm payrolls up 266,000 in Nov

* Dollar stands firm but hemmed in by trade uncertainties

* Sterling near 7-month peak ahead of UK election

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Dec 9 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Monday

after data showed surprise strength in the U.S. jobs market, but

the currency was restrained from moving higher by worries about

an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

The dollar index =USD stood almost flat at 97.706 in

mid-Asian trade, after rising 0.3% on Friday. The euro traded at

$1.10575 EUR= , after hitting a one-week low of $1.10395 on

Friday.

The dollar changed hands at 108.58 yen JPY= . It had lifted

to 108.92 yen on the U.S. jobs data before losing momentum.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 266,000 jobs last month,

the biggest gain in 10 months, while the unemployment rate

ticked back down to 3.5%, its lowest level in nearly half a

century. Those figures suggested the Trump administration's 17-month

trade war with China, which has plunged manufacturing into

recession, has not yet spilled over to the broader U.S. economy.

Still, investors think that could change if trade tensions

escalate further, especially if Trump goes ahead with planned

tariffs on some $156 billion worth of products from China from

Dec. 15.

The market has been largely working on the assumption that

those tariffs, which cover several consumer products such as

cellphones and toys, will be dropped or at least postponed,

given that Washington and Beijing agreed in October to work on a

trade deal.

"Markets are sensing that both sides want to avoid a

collapse of their negotiation, judging from various news

headlines," said Kazushige Kaida, chief of forex at State

Street. "So the main scenario is for the dollar/yen to test

mid-109 yen levels."

Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed on

Friday that the Dec. 15 deadline to impose the new tariffs

remains in place, but added that President Donald Trump likes

where trade talks with China are going. China's exports shrank for the fourth consecutive month in

November, underscoring persistent pressures on manufacturers

from the Sino-U.S. trade war. Elsewhere, sterling traded at $1.3143 GBP=D4 , not far from

a seven-month high of $1.3166 set on Thursday.

Against the euro, the pound hit a 2-1/2-year high of 84.10

pence per euro EURGBP=D4 .

The currency has been bolstered by expectations that Prime

Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party will win an outright

majority in the upcoming election on Thursday, thereby ending a

hung parliament and political paralysis on Brexit.

The Conservative Party extended its lead over the Labour

Party to 14 percentage points, up from 9 percentage points a

week ago, an opinion poll by Survation for ITV's Good Morning

Britain showed on Monday.

"Markets now think the Tories will win. But if they fail to

win an outright majority, that means essentially nothing is

different from now and will be a fairly big shock for the

market," said Minori Uchida, chief FX analyst at MUFG Bank.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.3255 to the U.S. unit

CAD=D4 . The loonie shed more than 0.5% on Friday following

data showing the Canadian job market losing a surprise 71,200

net positions in November when economists had expected a gain of

10,000.

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