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FOREX-Yen slips, yuan ascends as U.S. drops China FX manipulator label

Published 14/01/2020, 05:09
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yen slips, yuan ascends as U.S. drops China FX manipulator label
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* Dollar rises above 110 yen for first time since last May

* Yuan strengthens after U.S. FX manipulator label dropped

* China trade data beats consensus, fans optimism

* Sterling weak after soft data fans BoE rate cut bets

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The yen plumbed eight-month lows

while China's yuan climbed to its highest level since July on

Tuesday, as the U.S. Treasury Department reversed its decision

in August to designate China as a currency manipulator.

The announcement came as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He arrived

in Washington ahead of Wednesday's signing with U.S. President

Donald Trump of a preliminary trade agreement aimed at easing

tensions between the two countries. "Washington's decision to lift its designation of currency

manipulator on China has added to the positive mood that has

been already in place ahead of the signing of the trade deal,"

said Minori Uchida, chief currency strategist at MUFG Bank.

People familiar with the negotiations said that although the

manipulator designation had no real consequences for Beijing,

its removal was an important symbol of goodwill for Chinese

officials.

The dollar rose as much as 0.25% to 110.22 yen JPY= , its

highest since late May against the safe-haven Japanese currency.

It last stood at 110.04 yen, capped at a technical resistance

from Bollinger band around 110.22.

Uchida said the dollar/yen is likely to face an uphill

battle beyond the 110 yen mark, because the dollar is already

expensive relative to the U.S.-Japan yield gap which it tracks

fairly closely.

"The main driver of the dollar/yen is the yield gap. Last

year, when the dollar was above 110 yen, the yield gap was about

2.4 percentage points. Right now it is about 1.8-1.9 percentage

points. And we could see a setback if the upcoming trade deal

does not go beyond what has been already reported," he added.

In addition to hopes of easing in U.S.-China trade war,

solid China's trade data helped to boost optimism on the Chinese

economy and the yuan.

Exports grew 7.6% and imports jumped 16.3% in December from

a year earlier, both handily beating expectations. In the onshore trade, the yuan strengthened to 6.8731 per

dollar CNY=CFXS , its strongest level since late July, gaining

0.4% on the day.

The offshore yuan also firmed to its strongest level in

six months, hitting 6.8662 before easing slightly to 6.8725

CNH= .

"We are likely to see a cyclical recovery in the Chinese

economy during the first half of this year. Chinese firms have

slashed inventories to a very low level so any moves to rebuild

them could easily lead to a pick up in growth for a quarter or

two," said Ei Kaku, senior strategist at Nomura Securities.

"That should also support capital inflows. The yuan is

likely to stick around 6.8 per dollar though we think it could

weaken in the second half of this year due to various risks and

uncertainties," she said.

The risk-on mood in financial markets mildly supported the

euro against the dollar.

The European common currency, on a recovery after hitting a

two-week low of $1.10855 on Friday, last traded at $1.1137

EUR= .

Sterling came under renewed pressure after data showed

Britain's economy grew at its weakest annual pace in more than

seven years in November, raising the chances of a cut to

interest rates. Sterling traded at $1.2990 GBP=D4 , having fallen to a

three-week low of $1.2961 on Monday. The currency has become the

worst performer so far this year with fall of 2.0% against the

dollar.

Money markets forecast a almost 50% probability of a cut at

an upcoming meeting on Jan. 30.

The Australian dollar was lethargic, struggling to get any

lift from upbeat economic data of late, as weeks of bushfires

have darkened the mood toward the economy. The currency slipped

0.1% to $0.6893 AUD=D4 .

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