FOREX-Cautious optimism lifts Asian currencies after Sino-U.S. trade deal

Published 16/01/2020, 06:10
© Reuters.  FOREX-Cautious optimism lifts Asian currencies after Sino-U.S. trade deal
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* U.S.-China deal seen reducing trade uncertainty

* Kiwi, Aussie firm, yen softens

* Elevated Swiss franc hints at caution remaining

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Asian currencies inched higher

on Thursday supported by hopes the U.S.-China trade deal could

herald warmer relations between the world's two biggest

economies and help to revive global growth.

"The message is actually very, very simple: Tariffs are not

going up this year. And that's really all we need," said Ken

Peng, Citi's head of Asia investment strategy.

Beijing and Washington touted the Phase 1 deal, signed

overnight at the White House, as a step forward in resolving

their bitter trade dispute. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence fed optimism for further

progress, saying further Phase 2 discussions had already begun.

That put the New Zealand dollar on track for its first

intra-day rise in a week and the kiwi's 0.2% lift led small but

broad-based gains. It last traded at $0.6635 NZD=D3 .

The Chinese yuan, the most sensitive currency to the

U.S.-China trade relationship, drifted back toward a six-month

peak hit on Tuesday, adding 0.1% to 6.8842 per dollar CNY= .

The safe haven Japanese yen JPY= was a fraction softer at

109.92 per dollar, while the Australian dollar held a tad firmer

at $0.6908 AUD=D3 .

The greenback was also marginally lower against the euro

EUR= and pound GBP= , with analysts figuring a bounceback in

the world economy could be negative for the dollar.

Against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar sat at

97.195, close to a week low.

The centrepiece of the trade deal is a pledge by China to

purchase at least an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. farm

products and other goods and services over two years.

The United States will also cut by half the tariff rate it

imposed on Sept. 1 on a $120 billion list of Chinese goods, to

7.5%.

Yet market exuberance was checked because much of this was

priced in already and because it addresses few of the issues

that led to the trade conflict in the first place.

The agreement does not fully eliminate tariffs. It is vague

on enforcement. It makes no real progress on host of thorny

problems from intellectual and many analysts are sceptical that

the purchase targets are realistic.

The safe-haven Swiss franc's overnight rally to a 15-month

high of 0.9680 per dollar - close to where it held in Asian

trade - points to the level of caution.

"I'm not sure that there's any hidden gold nugget," said

Westpac FX analyst Sean Callow.

"There's a sense of markets having traded off the positive

vibes of the trade agreement for long enough, and it's very hard

to see where the upside is from here," he said.

"If there is a step towards freer trade and lower tariffs,

then it's obviously not going to happen anytime soon."

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