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FOREX-Commodity currencies down as OPEC+ deal fails to soothe demand concerns

Published 13/04/2020, 07:42

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Investors react to record oil output cuts
* Oil demand collapsing due to coronavirus
* Pandemic encourages risk-off trades

By Stanley White
TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - Commodity currencies slipped
against their safe-haven rivals such as the dollar and yen on
Monday as a record output cut agreed by OPEC and other oil
producing nations failed to offset broader concerns about
slumping global demand.
The greenback drifted higher against its Australian and New
Zealand counterparts, widely seen as barometers for market risk,
in a sign investors remain concerned about the consumption
outlook for commodities.
Financial markets remain on edge over the spread of the
novel coronavirus as severe restrictions on personal movement
drag the global economy into a deep recession.
"The initial reaction suggests that the decline in oil
demand is well ahead of the output cuts that were agreed," said
Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.
"This is a negative for oil producers. This also encourages
risk-off trading, which should support the yen."
The dollar rose 0.63% against the Norwegian crown NOK=D3
to 10.23 and 0.37% to 23.43 Mexican pesos MXN=D3 .
Against the Canadian dollar CAD=D3 , the U.S. currency held
steady at C$1.3945.
Trading could be somewhat subdued as financial markets in
Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Britain are closed for
the Easter Monday holiday.
Major oil producers agreed to the output cuts on Sunday to
prop up oil markets as the pandemic severely curtailed global
demand. Oil prices had gone into freefall on worries about the virus
and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which was seen
straining the budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S.
shale industry.
Currencies from Norway, Mexico, and Canada - all major oil
producers - got a boost on Friday as the agreement to cut output
began to take shape, but these gains disappeared on Monday as
investors avoided risk assets.
While oil futures erased early losses to trade higher, moves
in currencies highlighted investor trepidation over the
prevailing uncertainty in markets.
Other currency traders pointed to a decline in U.S. stock
futures as a supportive factor for risk-off trades.
The cautious mood boosted the yen, which is often sought as
a safe-haven during times of market and economic stress because
of Japan's current account surplus.
The yen JPY=EBS rose 0.62% to 107.83 per dollar on Monday
and jumped more than 0.5% against the Australian AUDJPY= and
New Zealand currencies NZDJPY= .
In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS eased slightly to
7.0465 per dollar after officials reported a rise in coronavirus
cases on the Chinese mainland. The coronavirus first emerged in
China late last year and has dealt the world's second-largest
economy a serious blow.
China will be releasing export data for March on Tuesday,
and is set to show shipments continued to contract. Analysts
will be closely watching for details on overall trade to gauge
the pandemic's damage on the global economy. Against the safe-haven Swiss franc CHF=EBS , the greenback
held steady at 0.9644.
The dollar edged up to $1.0950 per euro EUR=EBS .
Further declines in the dollar may be limited with
speculative net short positions in the U.S. currency having
risen to their highest since May 2018, according to calculations
by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 erased early losses to trade
at $0.6348. The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 fell 0.16% to
$0.6081 as investors shunned risky trades.
The pound GBP=D3 rose 0.3% to $1.2509 and last fetched
87.57 pence per euro EURGBP=D3 .
Sterling retained gains made after Prime Minister Boris
Johnson left hospital for treatment of COVID-19, the illness
caused by the coronavirus.

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