FOREX-Dollar dips as spotlight remains firmly on U.S./China trade

Published 21/11/2019, 12:27
FOREX-Dollar dips as spotlight remains firmly on U.S./China trade
DXY
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* Dollar index edged closer to recent two-week lows

* Trade war headlines continue to hog market spotlight

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The dollar was a touch weaker

against other major currencies on Thursday, with investors

fixated on the latest developments in a bitter 16-month long

trade dispute between the United States and China that has dealt

a blow to the world economy.

China has invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round

of face-to-face talks in Beijing amid continued efforts to

strike at least a limited deal, the Wall Street Journal reported

on Thursday, citing unnamed sources. This week has seen a hardening of rhetoric from both sides,

prompting investors to scale back optimism that a so-called

"phase one" agreement could be signed soon.

The greenback, which has behaved as a safe-haven currency

for most of this year, edged up on Wednesday after a report that

a deal could be postponed till next year.

At 1120 GMT, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's

value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.1% at 97.82 --

nearing two-week lows hit on Monday of around 97.68 .DXY .

It was 0.1% softer versus the euro on the day at $1.10835

EUR=EBS and 0.15% weaker against sterling at $1.2940 GBP=D3 .

"We're really just waiting to see what happens on the trade

front," said Stephen Gallo, European head of currency strategy

at BMO Financial Group in London.

"The shift in sentiment is warranted, a lot of good news had

been in the price and some of that has been taken out."

Gallo said the outlook for the dollar had not shifted that

much moving into 2020, with currency markets likely to remain

beholden to trade, Brexit and political headlines.

Strategists at Citigroup expect the dollar index to weaken by

more than 2% over the next year to around 94.

For others, a pause in U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate

cuts was positive for the dollar outlook.

"Over the past year or so there have been times where

negative headlines on trade have been negative for the dollar

because they have reinforced Fed easing expectations," said

Fritz Louw, a currency strategist at MUFG.

"But if you don't expect the Fed to cut rates further, the

negative trade sentiment impact would probably drive the dollar

a bit higher from a safe-haven perspective."

Minutes released on Wednesday showed that the Fed, which hit

pause in its easing cycle following a rate cut in October, is in

no hurry to reassess the path of interest rates. The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its

October meeting later on Thursday, with little significant

impact on the euro expected.

Against the yen, the dollar was steady at around 108.60

JPY=EBS with the Japanese currency supported by renewed trade

war jitters.

The passage of a U.S. law supporting anti-government

protesters in Hong Kong has added to concern that a trade deal

may not be reached soon, bolstering safe-haven assets.

China's yuan CNY=CFXS fell in the onshore market to 7.0450

versus the dollar, the weakest since Nov. 1, before steadying at

7.0320. Offshore, the yuan CNH=D3 slipped to 7.0533 per

dollar, the lowest since Nov. 5, before recovering its losses.

US dollar index https://tmsnrt.rs/2OvIPpf

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