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FOREX-Dollar dips as yield curve inversion deepens

Published 27/08/2019, 20:58
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar dips as yield curve inversion deepens
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Recasts, new throughout)

By Kate Duguid

NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Renewed caution about resolving

the U.S.-China trade war drove investors to safe-haven assets on

Tuesday, deepening the Treasury yield curve inversion and

lifting the Japanese yen against the dollar.

Ten-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR , a bellwether of market

sentiment about the country's overall economic health, fell

faster than 2-year yields US2YT=RR , deepening the inversion

between the two. The inversion, a widely accepted recession

indicator, pressured the dollar days after the United States and

China, the world's two biggest economies, raised tariffs against

each other.

"You have seen a push deeper into inversion in the 2s/10s

curve. Today, it's hard to put your finger on one specific

driver of that inversion - though that might be contributing to

the general sense of risk-off in the market," said Brian

Daingerfield, macro strategist at RBS (LON:RBS) Securities.

On Friday, China said it would increase tariffs on $75

billion worth of American goods. The United States retaliated by

saying it would raise existing tariffs on $250 billion of

Chinese goods to 30% from 25% on Oct. 1.

On Monday, Trump said Chinese officials had contacted U.S.

trade counterparts overnight and offered to return to the

negotiating table, sparking a wave of so-called risk-on trades,.

However, doubts crept in after a Chinese Foreign Ministry

spokesman on Tuesday said he was unaware that there had been any

recent phone call, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin

said there had been contact between the two sides. The Commerce Ministry, which typically releases

statements on trade calls, did not respond to a request for

comment.

The Japanese yen JPY= strengthened 0.34% to 105.75, a day

after hitting a 2-1/2-year high. It has risen 3.45% against the

dollar this year as trade tensions have mounted.

Elsewhere, the euro was trading slightly lower at $1.1090

EUR= , but was off earlier lows as Italian stocks rallied on

hopes that a snap election could be avoided by an arrangement to

form a new government in Rome. "The overall sense is that we continue to have uncertainty

on a number of different fronts whether it be the China-U.S.

trade war, politics in Europe, Brexit, a general slowdown in

China or other issues," Daingerfield said.

The pound was up 0.6% against the dollar, at $1.2288 GBP= ,

and by 0.69% against the single currency at 90.24 pence

EURGBP= after Britain's opposition Labour Party leader, Jeremy

Corbyn, said he would do everything necessary to prevent Britain

leaving the European Union without a divorce deal on Oct. 31.

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