FOREX-Dollar drifts down as investors eye payrolls and a busy week ahead

Published 06/12/2019, 06:09
Updated 06/12/2019, 06:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar drifts down as investors eye payrolls and a busy week ahead
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* Dollar beaten up after week of weak data, trade confusion

* U.S. non-farm payrolls eyed; due at 1330 GMT, +180k

expected

* Next week crammed with risk

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its worst

week since October on Friday, dragged down by nervousness on

trade and hints of weakness in the U.S. economy, with domestic

factors leaving the resurgent kiwi and British pound the main

beneficiaries.

The safe haven of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were also

in demand as investors fretted that U.S. jobs figures due later

in the day may fall short and braced for a week that brings a

British election, a U.S. Fed meeting and likely news on trade.

"There is a lot of event risk to navigate," said Richard

Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac in Sydney.

"I stand to be corrected here, but I think that next week

could possibly be the most consequential week for global markets

this year."

Movements on Friday were accordingly slight in Asian trade,

but against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar has dropped

every day this week for a cumulative loss of almost 1%.

U.S. President Donald Trump remained upbeat overnight on

trade and said talks are "moving right along".

Markets are unconvinced, with worries stemming from a lack

of similar enthusiasm from China.

Chinese officials reiterated their stance that some U.S.

tariffs must be rolled back for a deal, something Washington has

given no sign of doing. The focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due at 1330 GMT, comes

after dismal data through the week showed weak private payrolls,

soft services activity and a shrinking manufacturing sector.

A Reuters poll shows a forecast of 180,000 jobs being added

in November, and a miss might have the Fed reconsidering its

wait-and-see mode when the committee meets on Tuesday and

Wednesday.

"Markets are in a highly fragile condition at the moment,"

said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in

Sydney.

"So there is a greater potential for an exaggerated move if

we see a big divergence from expectations," he said. "The risk

is in both directions ... below 150,000 or above 210,000 we

could see a significant market reaction."

DOLLAR WEAKNESS, STERLING STRENGTH

This week the greenback has shed 0.8% against the euro

EUR= , to sit at $1.1106 per euro on Friday. The yen JPY= has

also firmed by the same margin, last trading at 108.68 per

dollar.

The best gains have been won by the soaring kiwi and pound.

The kiwi NZD=D3 sat just below a four-month high touched

on Thursday at $0.6559, having gained 2% this week as economic

indicators have turned positive, reducing the likelihood of

monetary easing in February to just 13%. RBNZWATCH

Sterling climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 84.28 pence against

the euro EURGBP= overnight and has advanced 1.7% against the

dollar this week, last trading at $1.3154 GBP=D3 .

Opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an

outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the

uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union that

has weighed on the currency for years.

Cable has rallied 10% since September lows.

"There's still a bit of nervousness about being too

convinced," said Jim Leaviss, head of fixed income at fund

manager M&G Investments. "But nevertheless cable seems to think

that we do get a clear majority for Boris Johnson," he said.

"That means that we leave the EU on the 31st of January ...

I think the options market was pricing in another 7% upside on a

Conservative victory, and I think that's justified

fundamentally."

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