FOREX-Dollar gains as US data make more Fed rate cuts unlikely

Published 18/12/2019, 13:00
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar gains as US data make more Fed rate cuts unlikely
DXY
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* Better-than-expected German Ifo business survey fails to

boost

* Pound extends losses on new fears of no-deal Brexit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Recasts, adds latest news, updates prices)

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar strengthened on

Wednesday as U.S. economic data suggested the Federal Reserve

was unlikely to cut interest rates further and as liquidity

shrank before the coming holidays.

The dollar rose against the euro, which has struggled to

stay above its 200-day moving average, and against the pound,

which has lost all its election gains on fears Britain could

leave the EU without a trade deal.

Industrial production rebounded in the United States in

November, mainly because a strike by General Motors workers

ended. Money markets are not pricing in a rate cut anytime soon.

FEDWATCH

The dollar is enjoying the "legacy of the data looking

better yesterday and the lack of liquidity towards month and

year end," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currencies at CIBC

Capital Markets.

However, it "looks like we could start to pre-positon for

greenback weakness next year," he said, noting the threat of

domestic politics and "slightly better growth outside of the

U.S."

German business morale rose more than expected in December,

a survey showed on Wednesday, another sign that a manufacturing

slump in Europe's largest economy may be bottoming out after

overall output shrank earlier in the year. Data failed, however, to help the falling euro, which was

last down 0.2% at $1.1124 EUR=EBS , below the 200-day moving

average of $1.11515.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Tuesday

that the United States may raise tariffs on European goods as it

tries to shrink its chronic trade deficit with the continent,

re-igniting worries of the prospects of the export-driven euro.

The U.S. House of Representatives is due to vote on whether

to impeach President Donald Trump later in the day and the

Senate is expected to vote in January.

CIBC's Stretch said this is "a high-profile news story, but

it doesn't have a large impact on the markets."

An index that tracks the dollar against six major currencies

jumped to a six-day high of 97.343 .DXY and was last up at

97.288.

The pound was down by 0.2% at $1.3102 GBP=D3 after falling

to $1.3074, its weakest since Thursday's election gave the

pro-Brexit Conservative Party a majority in parliament.

The pound extended its slide on rekindled fears of a chaotic

exit from the European Union. Having campaigned to "get Brexit

done," Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government on Tuesday set

the end of 2020 as an immovable deadline. The dollar slid below 7 to the Chinese yuan CNH=EBS , as

the United States and China complete phase one of a trade deal,

though worries remain over their future relationship.

"The enthusiasm to the phase one trade deal announced last

week appears to be fading," said Charlie Lay, an analyst at

Commerzbank, adding that "the market's ambivalence is

understandable given that there are few details."

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar and the Swedish crown

fell to a one-week low of 0.6555 against the dollar NZD=D3 and

of 10.4960 against the euro EURSEK=D3 respectively.

Euro struggles to break and stay above 200-day moving average

https://tmsnrt.rs/2twn2Hh

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