FOREX-Dollar gains from safe-haven scramble as virus rattles markets

Published 13/03/2020, 07:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar gains from safe-haven scramble as virus rattles markets

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* ECB did not follow Fed, BoE in cutting rates

* Traders watch equity market melt down

* Policymakers struggle with coronavirus response

By Stanley White

TOKYO, March 13 (Reuters) - The dollar stood tall on Friday

as investors scrambled for the world's most liquid currency amid

deepening panic about the coronavirus, while the euro nursed

losses after the European Central Bank disappointed by not

cutting rates.

The greenback held gains against most currencies after a

blowout in swap spreads showed investors are facing a shortage

of dollars as equity markets plunged on fears about the global

economic impact of the flu-like virus.

The ECB on Thursday unveiled a stimulus package that

provides loans to banks with rates as low as -0.75% and

increases bond purchases. The Federal Reserve moved to provide $1.5 trillion in

short-term liquidity and changed the durations of Treasuries it

buys, but money markets show investors expect the Fed will have

to go even further to restore calm to financial markets.

The government in Italy, which has become Europe's hot spot

for coronavirus infections, has effectively put the entire

country on lockdown to try to slow the virus.

Investors have so far expressed disappointment with the

government response to rising infections in the United States,

and traders warn there could be more disruptions in a broad

range of financial markets.

"Risk off used to benefit the yen, but now we see that risk

off is supporting the dollar," said Takuya Kanda, general

manager of the research department at Gaitame.com Research

Institute in Tokyo.

"We are in panic mode, because we don't know how far stocks

will fall."

The euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.1202, following a 0.72%

decline on Thursday in the wake of the ECB decision. For the

week, the common currency was on course for a 0.7% decline.

Against the pound GBP=D3 , the dollar rose slightly to

$1.2541 in Asia on Friday, which followed its biggest one-day

gain against sterling since July 2016. The dollar was up 3.8%

against sterling this week, its best performance since October

2016.

The greenback held gains against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS ,

trading at 0.9435, headed for a 0.7% weekly gain.

The ECB rolled out yet another stimulus package on Thursday

to help fight the coronavirus pandemic but did not join its

counterparts in the United States and Britain by cutting rates.

Investors, who had bet the ECB could cut rates at least 10

basis points and possibly more, were disappointed.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also aggravated a market

selloff by saying it was not the central bank's job to close the

spread between the borrowing costs of various members, comments

which she later tried to roll back. Authorities are rushing to introduce travel bans, extra

financial liquidity and monetary easing as the rapid spread of

the virus across the world slams the brakes on the global

economy.

The dollar rose 0.88% to 105.58 yen JPY=EBS on Friday, on

course for a 0.2% weekly advance.

With signs of financial stress emerging across different

markets, the New York Federal Reserve said it would make the

money available in three tranches of $500 billion each and that

it would start purchasing a broader range of U.S. Treasury

securities.

The Fed meets next week and many analysts now expect the

central bank to chop its own target policy rate, quite possibly

to zero, and give markets new guidance about how it plans to

combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus.

The Bank of Japan, which will announce a policy decision

next week Thursday after the Fed, announced the unscheduled

purchase of 200 billion yen ($1.90 billion) in government debt

on Friday. It also said it would inject an additional 1.5

trillion yen in two-week lending in a sign of concern that

liquidity could dry up. Cross-currency basis swap spreads for the yen JPYCBS3M=

and the pound GBPCBS3M=ICAP blew out in what traders say is a

sign of a dollar shortage.

Highlighting the sense of crisis, senior officials from the

Group of Seven talked on Thursday and confirmed they will

cooperate closely as equities tumble and corporate bond spreads

widen. The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 rose slightly to C$1.3894

against the greenback, pulling back from a four-year low.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's wife has tested positive for

the coronavirus, his office said. Trudeau is not showing any

symptoms but will stay in isolation for 14 days, according to

his office. The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NZD=D3

managed to bounce more than half a percent against the greenback

in Asian trade. The antipodeans were mauled on Thursday as

investors shunned riskier currencies that are linked to the

global commodities trade.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also injected an unusually

large amount of cash into the financial system on Friday as

panic spread. = 105.0200 yen)

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