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FOREX-Dollar gives back some gains from US-China trade deal optimism

Published 26/11/2019, 09:20
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar gives back some gains from US-China trade deal optimism

* Dollar jumps to two-week high vs Japanese yen

* Euro close to 11-day low vs dollar

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gave up earlier

gains as some of the optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement

faded.

The U.S. currency had jumped to a two-week high against the

safe-haven Japanese yen in Asian trading.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade representative

Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin

discussed issues related to phase one of a trade agreement and

agreed to maintain communication on remaining issues.

On Monday, China's Global Times, a tabloid run by the ruling

Communist Party's official People's Daily, said the two

countries were very close to a phase-one deal. The dollar was last trading neutral at 108.96 yen JPY=EBS ,

after rising as high as 109.205, its highest since Nov. 12.

The euro was also flat versus the dollar at $1.1016

EUR=EBS , not far from the 11-day low of $1.1004 it reached on

Monday.

The Chinese yuan -- the currency most sensitive to the

U.S.-China trade war -- had risen to a one-week high of 7.0181

against the dollar, but was last trading at 7.0335 CNH=EBS .

"China and U.S. agreed on a framework to resolve their

phase- one issue, which is just a way of saying that they did

admin work," said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at

Nordea Asset Management.

The next deadline for market participants to watch is Dec.

15, according to analysts. That is when the U.S. threatened to

impose 15% tariffs on $160 billion of imports from China.

"China appears positive to the deal. The dollar could rise

further to around 109.50 (yen) if U.S. officials will visit

China," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa

Securities.

Last week, the Chinese government invited Lighthizer and

Mnuchin to Beijing for face-to-face talks, the Wall Street

Journal reported.

Overall, currency trading is slowing before the U.S.

Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Traders are also increasingly pricing in tighter trading

ranges for major currencies, based on implied volatilities.

One-month euro/dollar implied volatility has fallen to

4.15/4.40% EUR1MO= , the lowest in five years. Three-month

volatility fell to a record low of 4.4/4.6% EUR3MO= .

The dollar/yen's three-month volatility also stood at

4.775/5.025% JPY1MO= , the lowest since late April and near its

historical lows above 4%. Three-month volatility on the

Australian dollar dropped to a five-year low of 6.12/6.42%

AUD3MO= .

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