FOREX-Dollar heads for weekly gain on trade talk hope but doubts remain

Published 08/11/2019, 07:26
Updated 08/11/2019, 07:27
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar heads for weekly gain on trade talk hope but doubts remain
DXY
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Dollar buoyed by U.S.-China tariffs pledge

* Some doubt about when trade deal will be signed

* BoE division hurts pound, paves way for rate cut

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The dollar held its gains versus

the yen and Swiss franc on Friday as investors bought riskier

assets on news that China and the United States had agreed to

roll back tariffs as part of an as yet unfinalised preliminary

pact to end their trade war.

China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs

on each others' goods in a "phase one" trade deal if it is

completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday.

Sentiment is likely to remain supportive for the dollar,

equities and other risky assets as a de-escalation in the

U.S.-China trade war removes a huge risk to the global economic

outlook.

"The overall tone is risk-on, which is a positive for the

dollar and a negative for the yen," said Tsutomu Soma, general

manager of fixed income business solutions at SBI Securities Co

in Tokyo.

"We can see this in other markets, which is why stocks are

so strong. We still need to figure out when the United States

and China will sign this deal, but the mood so far is supportive

for markets."

The dollar held steady at 109.26 yen JPY=EBS on Friday,

close to a five-month high, and was headed for a 1% gain for the

week.

The greenback CHF=EBS edged higher to 0.9949 Swiss franc,

on course for a 0.9% gain.

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major

currencies stood at 98.136, up 1% this week.

The progress in resolving the 16-month long trade war also

supported the China's yuan. In the onshore market, the yuan

CNY=CFXS traded at 6.9788 per dollar, and it was set for its

fifth straight weekly gain, which would be the longest winning

streak since February.

However, there is still some scepticism about a trade deal

as officials inside and outside the White House have bristled at

the notion of giving up punitive tariffs.

Muddying the water further, White House spokeswoman Stephanie

Grisham told Fox News Channel in an interview on Thursday that

the United States is "very, very optimistic" about reaching a

trade deal with China soon. The prospects to the United States and China ending their

trade war left the safe haven yen nursing losses against the

euro and the Australian dollar.

Sterling traded near a two-week low in the wake of the Bank

of England's decicion on Thursday to keep its Bank Rate

unchanged at 0.75%. Investors had expected that decision to be

unanimous, but two of the nine member board voted for a cut due

to uncertainties posed by Britain's fraught exit from the

European Union, and others, including Governor Mark Carney, said

they would consider a reduction in the future.

As a result, market odds on a interest rate cut next year

rose as high as 80%.

The pound GBP=D3 traded a $1.2812, close to the lowest

since Oct. 24. Cable was on course for a 1% decline this week.

Hitherto, the BoE has resisted following the U.S. Federal

Reserve and the European Central Bank in cutting its main

interest rate, but the outcome of Thursday's meeting suggests

the BoE is poised to change its stance.

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