FOREX-Dollar on the up before payrolls, China virus remains a risk

Published 07/02/2020, 01:36
Updated 07/02/2020, 01:46
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar on the up before payrolls, China virus remains a risk

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Dollar stands tall before NFP report

* Traders closely watching China virus fallout

* Safe-havens head for weekly decline

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The dollar traded near a two-week

high versus the yen on Friday on upbeat U.S. economy indicators

ahead of key jobs data, but the spread of a new coronavirus in

China remains a risk to financial markets.

The yuan held onto slim gains versus the dollar in offshore

trade on hopes Chinese stimulus would lessen the economic impact

of the epidemic, but the rising death toll has kept investors on

edge.

Sterling traded near a six-week low against the greenback

and a nursed losses versus the euro, dogged by persistent

worries about negotiations between Britain and the European

union for a post-Brexit trade deal.

Recent improvement in U.S. economic data has given some

traders respite from concerns about the new virus, but these

concerns are likely to loom large for weeks as investors asses

the scale of the economic impact.

"There is a perception that the U.S. economy will be less

affected by the virus than China or other countries, so that is

a factor for dollar strength," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief

currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"Risk-off trades could take a break because we won't know

the true state of China's economy until we see data for

February. There could be some big declines in the numbers for

China and other Asian countries."

The dollar traded at 109.97 yen JPY=EBS on Friday in Asia,

just below a two-week high hit earlier. For the week, the dollar

was on course for a 1.5% increase versus the yen, which would be

its biggest weekly gain since July 2018.

In the offshore market, the yuan CNH=D3 held steady at

6.9790 per dollar.

For the week, the offshore yuan was on course for a 0.35%

gain, supported by central bank stimulus and a surprise cut in

Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports. For now, the focus has shifted to the closely-watched U.S.

nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, which is forecast

to show job creation accelerated in January.

The mood for the dollar improved on Thursday after

unemployment benefits dropped to a nine-month low and worker

productivity rose. Data earlier this week showing a rebound in U.S.

manufacturing has also boosted the dollar's fortunes.

The U.S. optimism contrasts starkly with the jitters in Asia

as investors count the human toll of the virus and try to

measure how travel restrictions and business closures will

impact activity in the world's second-largest economy.

The yen and the Swiss franc, two currencies sought as

safe-havens, initially gained as the coronavirus epidemic

unfolded last month, but both currencies reversed course this

week.

Against the dollar, the Swiss franc CHF=EBS traded at

0.9747, headed for its biggest weekly decline since August 2019.

Sterling found itself on the backfoot as concerns about

Britain's relationship with the EU following its exit from the

bloc returned.

Investors are nervous that British Prime Minister Boris

Johnson is taking a hard line in the trade talks with the EU,

which need to conclude before the end of the year to avoid a

potentially disruptive break in trading relations.

The pound GBP=D3 was little changed at $1.2932, close to

the lowest since Dec. 25 and down 2% for the week.

Sterling EURGBP=D3 traded at 84.97 pence per euro, on

course for a 1.1% weekly decline.

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