FOREX-Dollar starts new year with a hangover as others find cheer

Published 02/01/2020, 00:48
Updated 02/01/2020, 00:54
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar starts new year with a hangover as others find cheer
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* Dollar eases on majors, moves minor so far

* Euro, yen near major resistance levels after Dec gains

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The dollar started the new year

where it left the old one, under pressure as investors wagered

U.S. economic outperformance could be coming to an end as

optimism on trade brightens the outlook for growth globally.

Signs of progress in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute undermined

the dollar for much of December, leaving its index .DXY down

1.9% on the month. It was flat on Thursday at 96.440 having

touched a six-month trough ahead of the holidays.

The euro edged up to $1.1220 EUR= , after gaining 1.8% in

December to reach its highest since early August. It now looks

set to challenge that August peak at $1.1249.

The dollar looked like slipping further on the Chinese yuan

after shedding 1% last month to stand at 6.9640 CNH= . It was

also finely poised on the yen at 108.67 JPY= , just a whisker

from the December lows and major support around 108.40.

"A more encouraging global growth outlook and flush dollar

liquidity conditions are undermining the USD," said Elias

Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of

Australia.

"Specifically, global fiscal/monetary policy settings will

remain accommodative in 2020 and China's growth slowdown is

stabilising."

China's central bank on Wednesday cut the amount of cash

that banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 800 billion

yuan ($114.91 billion) to shore up the economy. The dollar had benefited from U.S. economic outperformance

for much of 2019, but an easing in Sino-U.S. trade concerns has

boosted optimism that this year could favour other major

nations.

While activity was light on Thursday, traders were on watch

for any repeat of last January's "flash crash" when massive

stop-loss selling swept through an illiquid holiday-hit market.

There are fears the same could happen this week with Tokyo

off and Japanese retail investors again heavily short of yen and

long of risky high-yielding currencies, including the Turkish

lira and the South African rand.

For liquidity reasons, these positions are usually "legged"

through the U.S. dollar - selling yen for dollars and dollars

for lira - so any mass unwinding roils more than just the yen

crosses.

Yet, unlike last year, the authorities are on alert with the

Financial Futures Association of Japan warning against wild

moves.

The Federal Reserve has already averted a squeeze in lending

markets as banks took only a small portion of its d $150 billion

in year-end funding, leaving repo rates at the lowest since

March 2018.

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