FOREX-Dollar steady as markets hunker down for Fed rate cut

Published 30/10/2019, 12:59
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar steady as markets hunker down for Fed rate cut
DXY
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(Updates prices, adds comment)

* U.S. Fed tipped to end 2-day meeting with 25 bps rate cut

* Advance reading of U.S. Q3 GDP due

* UK to hold general election on Dec. 12 to break Brexit

deadlock

* U.S.-China deal may not be ready for signing at APEC

summit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The dollar was largely steady

against other major currencies on Wednesday as investors braced

for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and an advance

reading of economic growth in the third quarter that could shed

light on the rate outlook.

Sterling was a tad firmer, with Britain now set to hold its

first December election in almost a century after Prime Minister

Boris Johnson finally won parliamentary approval for a snap

ballot to break the Brexit deadlock. For now the spotlight turned to the Fed, which is expected

to cut rates for a third time in a row when it concludes its

two-day meeting on Wednesday. An advance reading of economic growth data in the third

quarter is due out before the Fed concludes its meeting and

comes ahead of other major data releases such as Friday's

non-farm payrolls report.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy grew

1.6% in the third quarter, compared with 2% the previous

quarter.

"In the last 4-5 weeks there has been a concern that the

consumer part of the market is starting to slow and that could

mean more cuts next year," said Derek Halpenny, European head of

global markets at MUFG in London.

"So what lies ahead post the Fed meeting, the GDP data,

payrolls will shape market expectations in addition to what (Fed

chief Jerome) Powell will say today."

The dollar was steady against the euro at $1.1114 EUR=EBS

and marginally lower versus a basket of six other major

currencies at 97.68 .DXY .

Against the Japanese yen, the greenback was little moved at

108.83 yen JPY=EBS , not far from its three-month high of

109.07 yen touched on Tuesday.

Investors are watching for any indication that further cuts

are likely, with futures pricing suggesting more easing is

expected in 2020. If that is not foreshadowed, traders expect

the dollar to rise.

"The Fed is treading a fine line at the moment and there's

no incentive to get off that and make a strong case one way or

another on rates," said Neil Mellor, senior currency analyst at

BNY Mellon in London.

"So if there's no equivocal view on Fed policy, there's no

equivocal view for the dollar."

RISK ASSETS

Optimism that Washington and Beijing would finalise the

first-stage of a trade deal next month had boosted risk assets

in recent days, but markets have turned wary.

A U.S. administration official said on Tuesday an interim

trade agreement between the United States and China might not be

completed in time for signing on the sidelines of an

Asia-Pacific summit in Chile next month, but that does not mean

negotiations are falling apart. The Chinese yuan inched up marginally as investors awaited

the outcome of the Fed meeting and more clarity on how Sino-U.S.

trade talks are going.

In the spot market, offshore spot yuan CNH=EBS was last

changing hands at 7.0550 per dollar, 0.15% firmer on the day.

Sterling meanwhile drew support from hopes that a disorderly

Brexit can be avoided with focus now on the December snap

election. GBP/

The British pound was last at $1.2891 GBP=D3 , a tad firmer

on the day but below five-month highs above $1.30 hit earlier

this month. It was also a fifth of a percent firmer against the

euro at 86.20 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Correlations between USD and Fed https://tmsnrt.rs/2pg9Tk1

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