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FOREX-Euro at three-week low as possibility of hawkish Fed boosts dollar

Published 23/08/2019, 11:43
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro at three-week low as possibility of hawkish Fed boosts dollar
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* After a brief rally on Thursday, euro on back foot again

* Pound gives back some gains, but stays above $1.22

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Adds context, new quotes and updates prices)

By Olga Cotaga

Aug 23 (Reuters) - The euro fell to three-week lows on

Friday as rising U.S. bond yields boosted the dollar before a

speech by the head of the Federal Reserve, which some investors

believe will see him signal reluctance to embark on a long

rate-cut cycle.

Jerome Powell will address the Jackson Hole symposium of

central bankers at 1400 GMT, and traders are waiting to see how

closely he allies himself with the hawks within the Fed.

Currency markets have in recent months been driven by a

shift at global central banks to looser monetary policy as

economic demand slows and trade disputes intensify.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting

in September are still high, according to interest rate futures,

but the currency market is likely to react if Powell's comments

don't match the dovish expectations. Money markets price in at

least two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year.

"I would expect him to stress that the U.S. economy is

strong enough that ... just a rate cut or two, taken out as

'insurance', will be enough to keep the recovery on track," said

Marshall Gittler, chief strategist at ACLS Global.

"That's probably more hawkish than what the market is

expecting and could be positive for the dollar."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) has recently changed its

forecast for euro/dollar, expecting the currency pair to fall to

$1.08 by the end of the year, compared with $1.17 earlier.

"You can make the argument that dollar strength is likely to

persist longer than previously expected," said Kamal Sharma, G10

forex strategist at BAML.

The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1055 EUR=EBS , a three-week

low, as the dollar gained and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose

3.7 basis points to 1.65% US10YT=RR . An index that tracks the

dollar against six major currencies .DXY was up 0.3% at 98.43.

The euro's attempt to rally after Thursday's

stronger-than-expected purchasing managers' data for August

fizzled out, with analysts pointing to weakness in the

forward-looking components of the surveys.

The PMIs would keep up pressure on the European Central Bank

to deliver more stimulus because "surveys remain consistent with

weak growth continuing in the third quarter," said Lee Hardman,

currency analyst at MUFG.

Elsewhere, China's offshore yuan stabilized at 7.0920

CNH=EBS after dropping to an 11-day low of 7.1072 overnight as

the People's Bank of China lowered its official yuan midpoint to

an 11-year low. The move was limited even though the set rate

was nowhere near the lows traders expected.

The pound gave back some of the gains made on Thursday after

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Britain had time until Oct.

31 to come up with a solution to the Irish border problem. It

fell 0.4% to $1.2208 GBP=D3 . Against the euro, it fell 0.2% at

90.58 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Analysts attributed the sterling gains to extreme short

positions on the currency, which would prompt some traders to

unwind those shorts at the merest hint of positive news.

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